Marine Prediction Center

2000 Accomplishments

1.  Introduction

Three significant changes occurred within the Marine Prediction Center (MPC) in 2000.  The first was the retirement of the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) system.  This was replaced by the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) for product generation and distribution.  AWIPS is a modern electronic workstation system.  The second was the renovation and enlargement of MPC’s operational spaces, and third was the initiation of the Marine Outlook operational desk.  The MPC staff embraced the new technology and fully integrated it into the product workflow.  As a result, significant gains in efficiency were realized such that improvements in existing products were implemented without additional staffing.

Outreach to users and educational institutions continued at a high level during 2000.  These activities included marine safety-at-sea workshops, seminars, boat shows, and formal presentations at various educational institutions such as the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies (MITAGS), U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, New York Maritime Academy, Maine Maritime Academy, U.S. Naval Academy, Sea Education Association, and American Sail Training Association.  The Center also widened its scope of responsibilities by hosting the first ever National Weather Service (NWS) Marine High Seas Coordination Meeting.

 The Center received considerable media coverage with the release in June of the motion picture The Perfect Storm.  Print and electronic media interviewed MPC staff on numerous occasions regarding the weather conditions portrayed in the picture.  In addition, the November issue of Cruising World magazine featured a color MPC surface analysis as a center foldout. 

The MPC also received recognition as a result of the awarding of the Department of Commerce (DoC) Silver Medal to MPC Director James Hoke and Marine Forecast Branch (MFB) Chief David Feit for their work in Newport, RI, with the EgyptAir 990 recovery team.  In addition the MPC received recognition with the awarding of the DoC Bronze Medal for their work in providing essential specialized forecasts to the recovery team.

2.  Major Accomplishments

Y2K Roll Over - The roll over from 1999 to 2000 had the potential of causing significant communications and data availability difficulties.  However, because of careful planning and watchful waiting the roll over, which occurred at 0000 UTC, January 1, 2000 (7 p.m., December 31, 1999) was uneventful.

Training at Maritime Facilities Provided - Joe Sienkiewicz, Senior Marine Forecaster with MPC’s Marine Forecast Branch, gave four presentations at the Maine Maritime Academy, Castine, ME, February 28-29, 2000.  Presentations were given to classes of Meteorology for Mariners, Watchkeeping, and Small Boat Operations.  Presentations illustrated MPC’s products and described how to use them.  Over 100 students and instructors were in attendance.  Several sessions were extended due to student interest, and a number of students attended two or more of the presentations.

Backup Plan for TPC Tested- MPC serves as the backup to the Tropical Prediction Center’s (TPC’s) offshore marine program.  On March 28, MPC successfully exercised the backup plan.  The exercise was especially useful in providing MPC forecasters experience in coordinating with the Miami and New Orleans forecast offices, which have coastal zone responsibilities adjacent to TPC’s offshore zones.

Retirement of Legacy Intergraph System- MPC completed its migration from paper and pen-based production of graphical products to the new workstation-based N-AWIPS software on March 31.  The daily production of 58 graphical products is now entirely on N-AWIPS workstations.

AFOS Retired - On May 22 the legacy AFOS communication system was retired.  It was replaced by Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System workstations.

Surface Analyses Transferred- The North Pacific and North Atlantic hemispheric surface analyses were transferred from the HPC to the MPC on April 30.  Enhanced software display techniques using state-of-the-art computer-generated presentations of plotted observations, satellite cloud cover, and numerical model forecasts were developed through a partnership involving NCO, MPC, and HPC staff.

MPC/WFO Visiting Forecaster program- The MPC/NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) visiting forecast program was initiated in May with WFO Caribou, ME.  Mike Fitzsimmons, Marine Focal Point there, visited the MPC May 22-26.  He  was familiarized with every aspect of MPC operations and was briefed on marine science issues by the staff of the Ocean Modeling Branch of the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  A reciprocal visit was made to WFO Caribou by Ed Schoenberg, MPC Senior Marine Forecaster.

Marine High Seas Coordination Meeting- The MPC hosted the first NWS Marine High Seas Coordination Meeting at the NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, June 5-7.  The 18 meteorologists in attendance were representatives from the MPC, Tropical Prediction Center, Pacific and Alaska Regions of the National Weather Service, and the NWS Office of Meteorology.  Subject matter experts from NCEP Central Operations, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service’s Office of Research and Applications, and the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies also attended.  The meeting brought together the various forecast centers in the NWS responsible for the issuance of High Seas and Offshore forecasts for the purpose of coordinating text and graphical product content, Weather Service Operations Manual chapter changes, and a host of other topics relating to marine forecasting.

Participation in International Meetings- David Feit, MFB Chief, represented the United States at the Second Transition Planning Meeting of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) for the World Meteorological Organization / Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission held in Paris, France, June 13-16.  The purpose of the meeting was to finalize the work plan and structure of the first JCOMM meeting to be held in Iceland in June 2001.

Backup Plan for MPC Tested - As the counterpart to the backup test of March 28, TPC successfully tested its backup plan for the MPC on August 24.  There were a few communications glitches in the product headers that were fixed immediately.  Periodic tests like this are essential to guaranteeing the delivery of MPC and TPC products and services during emergency situations.

NCEP Directors Day - MPC joined the HPC in hosting NCEP Directors Day on October 27.  The former directors attending were Fred Shuman (Director, 1964-1981), Bill Bonner (Director, 1981-1990), Jim Howcroft (Acting Director, 1990), and Ron McPherson (1990-1998).  NCEP Director Louis Uccellini and representatives from the nine NCEP centers provided briefings on the status and current activities of NCEP.  In turn, the distinguished guests spoke about some of the major activities that took place during their tenures.  The accomplishments of the first Director, George Cressman (1954-1964), whose health prevented him from attending, were also discussed.

Marine Outlook Desk - A new desk was implemented November 28.  The Marine Outlook Desk is responsible for providing forecasts out to 96 hours and beyond.  These forecasts include, among others, the 96-hour  wind/wave graphical product first introduced in August and the 96-hour wave period graphic initiated with the implementation of this desk.

Outreach - Outreach continued at a high level by taking advantage of opportunities to reach marine customers in a variety of venues.  These included the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies, boat shows, marine safety workshops, safety-at-sea seminars, and marine safety workshops.  The primary purpose of MPC’s participation in these outreach events was to inform users about the availability of MPC products and about the various means of obtaining them.

Media- David Feit was interviewed on CNN's Insight program on July 5.  The live, half-hour show addressed how marine weather is forecast.  Special emphasis was given to the events surrounding the Halloween Storm of 1991 (“the Perfect Storm”).  Mr. Feit was also interviewed by NOW.COM on July 18.  NOW.COM is an internet broadcast service covering science, among other topics.  The interview focused on the meteorological events of “the Perfect Storm”.

On June 3, 2000, Joe Sienkiewicz, Senior Marine Forecaster, was interviewed by The Discovery Channel regarding the evolution of the 1991 “Perfect Storm”.  Air date was June 26.  He also gave a number of other interviews during the week of June 28 - July 5 concerning ocean waves, wave forecasting, marine forecasting, ocean weather, and “the Perfect Storm” to USA Today, the Nashville Tennessean, the San Jose Mercury News, the Dallas Morning News, WCVB Boston, and WBAL Baltimore, Maryland.  In addition, he took part in a press conference that weeks at NOAA Headquarters discussing forecasting the “Perfect Storm” with NOAA Administrator D. James Baker, NCEP Director Louis Uccellini, retired NWS forecaster Bob Case, and Ajay Mehta, Acting Chief of the NESDIS Search and Rescue Satellite Division.  After the formal press conference, the New York Times, interviewed him for an article about the lost Russian submarine in the Barents Sea.

As part of the Public Broadcast Service (PBS) Savage Planet program series, the MPC was featured in Part 2 of this series titled Storms of the Century broadcast on June 13.  Joe Cope, MPC Marine Forecaster, was shown presenting MPC’s daily marine map briefing and was interviewed regarding the strength, forecasting, and effects of the extratropical storm located March 11-12, 1993, in the Gulf of Mexico and then moving up the east coast of the United States causing 243 deaths, two billion dollars in damage, and affecting the lives of nearly 100 million people in 26 states.  In the PBS program, the NOAA Science Center, MPC’s operations area, and a number of MFB personnel were shown discussing this major eastern U.S. winter storm.

The November 2000 issue of Cruising World magazine highlighted a North Atlantic surface analysis from the MPC.  The North Atlantic surface map analysis was featured as a color center foldout and is accompanied by a detailed description of the graphic.

On November 23, The Gazette of Maryland featured a story on the forecasting activities of the National Weather Service at NCEP.  Bob Kelly, MPC Senior Marine Forecaster, spotlighted the importance of NCEP’s forecasts to mariners on the high seas and some of the technology used in making those forecasts.

3.  Awards in 2000

Hoke and Feit Receive Silver Medal Award- MPC Director James Hoke and MFB Chief David Feit were awarded the Department of Commerce Silver Medal by Secretary of Commerce Minetta during ceremonies held October 11, 2000, at DoC headquarters in Washington, D.C.  The Silver Medal is the second highest award of the Department.  Dr. Hoke and Mr. Feit were recognized for their on-site marine support to the Egypt Air 990 Recovery Task Force Command Center’s staff, Newport, RI, November 2-19, 1999.  They provided on-scene, customized weather forecasts and graphics for the search area to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), Coast Guard, Navy, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Public Health Service, and ships of the recovery effort, including NOAA's WHITING.

MPC Awarded the Bronze Medal- The Center was awarded the DoC Bronze Medal by Deputy Undersecretary Scott Gudes at ceremonies held in December 2000 at the University of Maryland Conference Center, College Park.  The Bronze Medal is the third highest award of the Department.  MPC was awarded the medal for providing specialized marine analysis and forecast support to the EgyptAir 990 Recovery Task Force Command Center, Newport, RI, November 2-19, 1999.  MPC’s meteorologists worked around the clock providing extremely accurate customized weather forecasts and graphics for the search area to the NTSB and other components of the recovery effort.  Marine forecasts of wind speed and wave height were of extreme importance during the search and recovery efforts.  NTSB Chairman Hall was very appreciative and impressed with the weather support the Recovery Task Force had been receiving and said "You weather people have done an incredible job.  We couldn't have done it without you."

Cline Award- Paul Vukits, Joe Sienkiewicz, Doug Scovil, Bob Kelly, Ed Schoenberg, Pedro Fritz, Joe Cope, Joe Czarniecki, and George Bancroft, meteorologists in the Marine Forecast Branch, as a group, were recipients of the Cline Award for 2000 in the Meteorology Category.  These meteorologists provided marine weather forecast support to MPC management at the NTSB’s Recovery Task Force Command Center, Newport, RI, for EgyptAir Flight 990 search and recovery operations, November 2-9, 1999.  They prepared tailored support in the form of consultations and plain-language forecasts specially prepared for the recovery operations area.  In addition to the standard 48-hour forecast, a special outlook period of up to 6 days was also provided, as were wave period and steepness – fields not normally forecast at that time.  These outlook periods and special forecast fields were crucial to the planning of recovery operations because of the long lead times necessary to load and transport the specialized equipment and the fact most recovery operations had to be terminated when waves exceeded 8 feet.  Timely and accurate forecasts were required to anticipate both good and bad weather to enable crew rotation and equipment repair, maximize on-scene recovery activities, and account for transit time to and from the recovery site.

4.  Staff as of December 31, 2000

James E. Hoke, Director

Marshall P. Waters, III, Deputy Director

Angela K. Wright, Secretary

David M. Feit, Branch Chief

Senior Marine Forecasters:   Robert W. Kelly, Edward R. Schoenberg, Douglas H. Scovil, Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Paul R. Vukits

Forecasters:   George P. Bancroft, Jeffrey K. Bowman, Lee S. Chesneau, David L. Chorney, Joe B. Cope, Joseph L. Czarniecki, Pedro Fritz, Curt J. Janota, Hugh G. McRandal, James D. Nolt, Robert J. Oszajca, Donald S. Prosise, Michael A. Rowland, Todd S. Shaw, Wayne D. Weeks

Marshall P. Waters, III, Branch Chief

James L. Partain, Jr., Science and Operations Officer

None

Using an excellent NWS marine forecast, MPC’s David Feit at the helm sails up the Chesapeake Bay on the Esprit, a Catalina 34.

Marine Forecaster Pedro Fritz evaluates the latest computer output as he prepares his operational high seas forecast.

Distinguished attendees of NCEP Directors Day, October 27, 2000.  From left to right, current Director Louis Uccellini, Ron McPherson (Director, 1990-98), Fred Shuman (Director, 1964-81), Bill Bonner (Director, 1981-90), and Jim Howcroft (Acting Director, 1990).