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Marine Prediction Center
2001 Accomplishments
1. Introduction
The Marine Prediction Center (MPC) had a number of unique accomplishments in
2001. These included the implementation of a web page for assisting in the
formulation of individual development plans, the establishment of a marine
warning verification program, and the signing of a letter of agreement with an
important MPC marine partner - the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate
Studies. The Center also continued to work closely with NWS field offices in the
areas of coordination and training. These activities support the MPC’s vision of
being the mariner’s weather lifeline.
2. Major Accomplishments
Marine Warning Verification Program Implemented
A new MPC graphical warning verification program was implemented in February.
The program is set up to provide verification statistics the Center as a whole
as well as for individual forecasters.
The verification statistics are derived by comparing the MPC’s surface
analysis at 00z and 12z to the corresponding 00z and 12z 48-hour surface
forecasts and the 12z 96-hour surface forecast. Each forecasted low and frontal
system which meets one of the three warning criteria (gale, storm, or hurricane
force) is evaluated against the same system on the analysis map. The forecast is
given a value ranging from –3 (3 warning criteria too low) to +3 (3 warning
criteria too high) as compared to the analysis map. For example, if the 48-hour
forecast depicted a storm but the surface analysis depicted a gale, the system
would receive an error of +1 for over forecasting by one warning criteria. Both
the absolute value (Mean Absolute Error) and the raw value (Bias) are used to
calculate a daily, monthly and total error value for the individual forecaster.
New statistics are calculated every month and made available to the MPC
forecasters.
NWS Eastern Region and Marine Prediction Center Collaborate on Implementing
Coordination Calls
The MPC began routine coordination calls with the National Weather
Service Eastern Region offices having coastal marine responsibilities on Monday,
February 12. The calls take place twice per day at 1:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. for
the purpose of coordinating significant marine weather events and to ensure
compatibility of forecasts and warnings in adjacent areas. The value of these
calls were evident after a similar system was implemented with the Western
Region in 1999.
Gulf Stream 24-h Forecast Implemented
Based on output from the Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS), in March
MPC implemented 24-h forecasts of the Gulf Stream. The forecasts are made twice
per day and show the detailed positions of the north and south walls of this
dynamic ocean feature. Associated with the Gulf Stream Positions are the
issuance of special forecasts and warnings, when appropriate.
Participation in International Meetings
Invited talk on activities of the Marine Prediction Center to ARGOS
International Users Conference - On April 25, MPC Director Jim Hoke
presented an invited talk entitled "Activities of the Marine Prediction Center"
to the attendees of the ARGOS International Users Conference. The presentation
focused on the importance of observations, including those received through the
ARGOS system, to weather analysis and forecast operations in the U.S. The MPC
was one of several scientific organizations benefiting from ARGOS highlighted
at the conference. The meeting was an excellent opportunity to gain user
feedback on MPC products and services.
WMO Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology -
Mr. Dave Feit, Chief of the NWS’s MPC’s Marine Forecast Branch, was a U.S.
delegate to the first meeting of the WMO Joint Technical Commission on
Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), Akureyri, Iceland, June 18-29,
2001. The JCOMM is an attempt to integrate programs of the Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
principally in support of observing, forecasting, and understanding the marine
atmosphere, the global and coastal oceans, and global climate change. The JCOMM
provides a new paradigm for two UN bodies working together in the implementation
of a sole commission that will report directly to two UN governing bodies.
Further, it provides a technical focus for marine meteorology and oceanography
within the UN specialized agency framework.
Among the items proposed by the U.S. delegation was that all storms with
winds in excess of 63 knots should receive a special identifier (Pan Pan) under
the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System. The existing practice for the
use of this identifier has been reserved to only those storms that are tropical
in nature. The Commission agreed to this change and it is now part of MPC
operations.
International Workshop on Operational Marine Forecasting - MPC
Director Jim Hoke and lead forecasters Scott Prosise and Joe Sienkiewicz
attended the International Workshop on Operational Marine Forecasting, sponsored
by Environment Canada on November 19-22, 2001, in Halifax, Nova Scotia. Goal of
the workshop was to serve the practical needs of operational marine forecasters
from around the world by providing a stimulating scientific forum where the
common concerns of measurement and prediction of wind, waves, and weather could
be discussed and debated. The goal was clearly met.
The MPC staff were major players in this workshop. For example, Hoke
presented a one-hour keynote talk on the NWS marine program. Prosise’s two
presentations were "Rapid Wave Growth on the High Seas" and "A Quality Control
System for Marine Meteorological Data". Sienkiewicz spoke on the "The
Operational Use of QuikSCAT Scatterometer Winds at the U.S. Marine Prediction
Center" and presented the paper "On the Use of Probabilistic Information for
Operational Marine Forecasting" prepared by MPC Science and Operations Officer
James Partain. Additionally, MPC staff contributed during numerous labs and
evening sessions.
The MPC Staff members visited the Maritimes Weather Center collocated with
the Canadian Hurricane Center in Halifax, as well as the regional headquarters
for Nova Scotia of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). With Canadian
Port Meteorological Officer Randy Sheppard, the staff met with Captain William
English and his first mate on board the Canadian Coast Guard Ship Edward
Cornwallis, an icebreaker and buoy tender. A visit was paid as well to the MSC
buoy center in Halifax.
Agreement with the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies to
Expand Partnership Signed
Mr. Glen Paine, Executive Director of the Maritime Institute of
Technology and Graduate Studies (MITAGS) and Pacific Northwest Maritime
Institute, and Dr. James E. Hoke, Director of MPC, signed a letter of agreement
on September 5, 2001. The agreement establishes a framework whereby MPC will
provide weather instruction, as time and resources permit, in MITAGS’ Heavy
Weather Avoidance course, Marine Weather course, Master Mates and Operator
course and other licensing courses requiring weather skills. The agreement also
provides for MITAGS to seek grants and to partner with MPC on projects of mutual
interest, such as the development of warning and forecast products for mariner
safety. The agreement codifies the long time
informal arrangement MPC has had with MITAGS.
Training to Government Facilities Provided
Alaska Field Offices - At the request of the NWS Alaska Region, from June
25 - July 6 MPC’s Science and Operations Officer James Partain conducted systems
and operations training on the use of the National Centers Advanced Weather
Interactive Processing System’s NMAP program at the Anchorage, Fairbanks, and
Juneau Weather Forecast Offices. NMAP is an NCEP-developed program for creating
graphical meteorological products on workstations and has been central to the
modernization of the NWS at its national centers. James and two members of
NCEP’s Central Operations provided the training. Systems-support personnel from
across Alaska participated in the first stage – systems training – in Anchorage
the first week. During the second week James traveled to Fairbanks and Juneau to
train the staffs there on the operational use and support of NMAP and its
underlying software. As part of his trip James also developed software that has
already proven invaluable to Alaska Region meteorologists in harnessing the full
power of NMAP.
New NOAA Corps Officers Class - Mr. Joe Sienkiewicz, MPC, marine Forecast
Branch was a guest lecturer at the NOAA Corps Officer Training Course at the
United States Merchant Marine Academy in Kings Point, NY, on October 10 and 11,
2001. Mr. Sienkiewicz gave a seminar on basic marine weather to the class of 16
newly commissioned NOAA Corps officers in the evening of October 10. On October
11, he taught the class how to take weather observations while on a day cruise
aboard the Training Vessel Kings Pointer on Long Island Sound. Reaching out to
such classes ensures appropriate appreciation of the role MPC plays in providing
weather to the NOAA fleet..
Support for Efforts of National Marine Fisheries Service to Save Entangled
Right Whale
NMFS Office of Protected Resources first requested weather support from the
MPC for Tuesday, June 19, 2001. Since then the MPC has provided marine weather
forecasts to assist their operations to save an endangered Right Whale entangled
in a line approximately 80 miles east of Massachusetts. The MPC’s forecasts were
very important input into the NMFS go/no go decision-making process as
relatively calm seas are necessary for success.
Outreach Opportunities
Through the MPC outreach program, presentations about the MPC products and
services program were made at 16 events spread out over the year. . Among these
events were Sail Expo 2001 - Atlantic City, NJ, Safety at Sea
Seminar - U.S. Naval Academy, Fish Expo 2001 - Seattle, WA, as
well as heavy weather and hurricane avoidance seminars, . By participating in
such events, the MPC receives important feedback about the usefulness of our
products and how they may be improved.
Press Interviews
Dave Feit interviewed by CNBC - On August 8, Dave Feit, Chief, Marine
Forecast Branch, was interviewed by meteorologist Joe Witte of CNBC. The
interview addressed recent improvements in marine forecasting, the importance of
marine weather to ships, and the economic impact of adverse marine weather.
3. Awards
Mr. Lee S. Chesneau received the 2001 MPC Cline award for his work in user
outreach. His efforts have resulted in greatly expanded and strengthened
contacts with several important segments of the marine community. In addition,
he has met and spoken to small and large groups of unaffiliated mariners. These
contacts are frequently made on his own time which he has given freely and with
great enthusiasm.
4. MPC Staff
As a result of the retirement of the MPC Deputy Director, Mark Waters and the
departure of the MPC secretary, Angela Wright, the administrative support for
the MPC has been modified. HPC Deputy Directer Kevin McCarthy, HPC
Administrative Assistant Gerald Delaney, and HPC Secretary Jeanette Rolen were
assigned half time positions in both the HPC and MPC . The listing below
reflects the staff assigned as of December 31, 2001.
5. Staff as of December 31, 2001
Administration
James E. Hoke, Director
Kevin C. McCarthy, Deputy Director
Gerald A. Delaney, Administrative Officer
Jeanette Rolen, Secretary
Marine Forecast Branch
David M. Feit, Branch Chief
Senior Marine Forecasters: Donald S. Prosise, Edward R. Schoenberg,
Douglas H. Scovil, Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Paul R. Vukits
Forecasters: Kevin Achorn, George P. Bancroft, Jeffrey K. Bowman, Lee S.
Chesneau, David L. Chorney, James Clark, Joe B. Cope, Joseph L. Czarniecki,
Allen W. Fritz, Jr., Hugh G. McRandal, David Mills, James D. Nolt, Robert J.
Oszajca,, Michael A. Rowland, Todd S. Shaw.
Marine Applications Branch
James L. Partain, Jr., Acting Branch Chief/Science and Operations Officer
Curt J. Janota, Meteorologist Developer
6. Personnel Changes
Marshall P. Waters, III, Deputy Director - retired after over 37 years of
federal service
Angela K. Wright, Secretary - promoted to position in NCEP Central
Operations
Wayne D. Weeks - promoted to position at NWS Headquarters
Robert W. Kelly - transfered to leadership position in Honolulu WFO
David L. Chorney -USAF Reservist activated to support war effort
Kevin C. McCarthy - joined the MPC from HPC
Jerry Delaney - joined the MPC from HPC
Jeanette Rolen - joined the MPC from HPC
James D. Clark - joined the MPC from NESDIS
David W. Mills - joined the MPC from private sector
Kevin R. Achorn - joined the MPC from private sector
Marine Forecaster, George Bancroft, participating in the twice daily Atlantic
Regional Desk conference call with Eastern Region forecast offices.
Marine Forecaster, Todd Shaw, briefing the latest high seas weather.
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