NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>Coastal Guidance>ESTOFS Storm Surge Model Guidance Areas

ESTOFS Storm Surge Model Guidance (0-96 Hour Forecasts)

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DATA is available in GRIB and NetCDF formats via NOMADS: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/

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ESTOFS (Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System) is a collaboration between the NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Develompment Lab ( http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/csdl.html ) and NOAA/NCEP. ESTOFS provides a second operational set of forecast guidance in addition to the ET-SURGE (ETSS) model with an increased resolution (2.5 km vs. 5 km for ET_SURGE) and uses the circulation model ADCIRC. Tides are included in ESTOFS and forced at its boundaries from the OSU TPXO v6.2 tides and refined further within ADCIRC.

The ESTOFS model is run on NCEP's central computing system four times daily out to 180 hours producing numerical storm surge guidance for extratropical systems. The model is forced by real time output of winds and pressures from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The current coverage of the operational ESTOFS forecast domains around the U.S. includes those shown in the Figure plus in the Caribbean surrounding Puerto Rico(not shown here).

The ready availability of numerical guidance from the operational ESTOFS will enhance the ability of NCEP (OPC and NHC/TAFB) to provide operational extratropical coastal storm surge guidance in the Marine Weather Discussion (MWD), also known as MIM.

Note: The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge information shown here should not be used for tropical cyclone events. For official storm surge information associated with tropical cyclones, please consult advisories and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center ( www.nhc.noaa.gov ).