AGNT40 KWNM 271334
Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
934 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018
.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.
No significant changes to the forecast anticipated at this time
as current forecast in line with latest model guidance.
SEAS...Wave guidance within a foot or two of current
observations. No changes planned to the wave grids at this time.
Current Conditions...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a
stationary front extending roughly E to W across the Georges Bank
zones and into the Cape Cod region, with a low pressure trough
approaching the mid Atlantic coast. Otherwise, the analysis shows
a high pressure ridge over the offshore waters. Latest available
ascat and ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 15 to 20
kt wind in SW flow over the SW nt1 and northern nt2 waters, with
5 to 15 kt across the remaining offshore waters. Lightning
density product data at 0640z indicates scattered showers and
tstms just S of the stationary front, concentrated in zones 815,
820 and 905.
Models/Forecast...The 00z medium range models are in good
agreement across the offshore waters during the forecast period,
except they disagree somewhat regarding a low pressure system
that is expected to track E across the central nt2 waters on Tue
and Tue night. Will use the 00z gfs 10m solution for the wind
grids for tonight through Mon for consistency purposes, then go
with the 00z ecmwf for Mon night through the rest of the
forecast period, since it is a good median model solution for Tue
and Tue night. Confidence in the forecast is slightly above
average, due to the good model agreement for most of the forecast
Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the coastal and offshore waters versus the latest buoy
observations and altimeter data. In order to be consistent with
the preferred wind grids, the 00z wavewatch will be used for the
sea height grids for today through Mon, followed by the 00z wam
for Mon night through the rest of the forecast period.
Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.
.NT1 New England Waters...
.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.Forecaster Achorn/Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.