AGPN40 KWNM 230822
Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
122 AM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.
The 06Z surface analysis indicated a cold front just west of the
Washington/Oregon and northern California offshore waters. A weak
high pressure ridge extended across the central and southern
California waters. The latest avaialbe Asact passes from around
05Z and 0605Z indicated a broad area of 25 to 30 KT winds in
advance of the front over the western Washington and Oregon
waters. Buoy 46005 about 30 NM west of the western Washington
offshore waters has had frequent gusts in gale threshold the past
three hours with a gust to 47 KT noted at 2310 local time which
was about the time of FROPA. Widespread gales were also noted on
Ascat northwest of the area from near the Queen Charlotte
Islands extending northwest.
The 00Z models remain in very good agreement during the short
term period through Thurday afternoon. Beyond that, there
continue to be differences between the models with the GFS being
the main outlier. For the short term period, will maintain the
gale warning for early today for marginal gales for the far
northwest Washington waters, with winds dropping below gale by
12Z. The next strong front is forecast to affect mainly the
Washington and Oregon waters later tonight into Wednesday. As has
been the case the past few days, the models are all very similar
with this front, and confidence with these gales is above
average. Weak low pressure will then move across the far
northwest Washington waters Thursday, with ridge following
Thursday night through Friday night. For late Friday night
through Saturday night, all of the models except the GFS indicate
another low passing just west of the Washington/Oregon waters
while the GFS has the low further northwest. Will defer to the
ECMWF which is also in good agreement with UKMET and GEM. This
will also maintain decent continuity with previous forecast. In
summary, will use the 00Z GFS to populate wind grids through 00Z
Friday, then will use ECMWF. This will result in few if any
changes to existing warning headlines.
.SEAS...The 06Z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas
matched up well with the ENP and ECMWF WAM forecast values. For
the wave grids plan on using 50/50 blend of ENP/WAM through 00Z
Friday, then all ECMWF WAM for remainder of period.
.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.
.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
Gale Possible Saturday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZ6 California Waters...
.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.