Atlantic Text Briefing Package

[Printable Version]

AGNT40 KWNM 180119
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
819 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Forming low pressure now 40 nm to the SE of Frying Pan Shoals
will rapidly intensify overnight into Thu while moving ENE along
the Gulf Stream. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate over the
next several hours initially off the Outer Banks and Virginia
Capes in zones ANZ833, ANZ830, and ANZ828, quickly spreading 
east to outer OPC zones ANZ930 and ANZ925 by 12z Thu, then
clipping the southern portions of outer zones ANZ920 and ANZ910
during the day Thu. 

Beneath rapid cyclogenesis, primary marine hazards expected
during the overnight hours:

 - sustained violent storm force winds to 60 kt
 - hurricane force wind gusts
 - quickly building significant wave heights well exceeding 20 ft
 - both winds and seas will amplified and stronger within the 
   Gulf Stream

Based on newly arriving 18z regional guidance from the NAM and
the 23z HRRR, and in addition to the continued support from the 
18z GFS and 12z ECMWF/UKMET, will initiate storm headlines 
across several of the offshore zones this evening. Intend to 
populate the first 36 hours of the forecast with the 12z ECMWF,
which forward speed wise represents a good compromise between the
faster global and the slower regional model guidance. Given its 
slightly weak bias with surface winds, and considering the low 
development across the Gulf Stream, will utilize smart tool that
increases ECMWF surface winds. This will result in sustained 
winds to 60 kt in OPC grids. Given the proximity to the Gulf 
Stream and the strengthening trend seen in model guidance during 
the past few runs, certainly concerned that sustained winds could
reach hurricane force, which would only represent 5 kt higher 
wind speed than currently forecast. Will continue monitoring 
arriving guidance and tweak grids as needed, but hurricane force
wind warning headlines may be initiated. 

Seas: will use the 12z ECMWF WAM during the first 36 hours of the
forecast, which tends to perform better during these rapid
cyclogenesis events. Model guidance from the WAM is roughly 4-6 
feet higher than the WW3. And as mentioned before with the 
proximity to the Gulf Stream, will further increase forecast 
seas 5-10 percent to produce values in excess of 25 feet, highest
across the outer zones of ANZ925 and ANZ930. 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Current Conditions...The 18z opc preliminary surface analysis 
shows a 1016 mb low centered about 80 nm SE of Cape Cod, with an
associated warm front extending E across the Georges Bank waters
and an associated stationary front extending S over the outer 
zones of the nt2 area. The analysis also indicates that a gale 
force low pressure system will pass NE across the nt2 waters 
within the next 12 to 18 hours. Otherwise, the analysis shows a 
high pressure ridge over the nt1 waters. Latest available ascat 
and ascat hi-res passes from a few hours ago show 20 to 25 kt 
winds in NW flow over the mid Atlantic coastal waters, with 10 
to 20 kt winds indicated elsewhere over the nt2 waters. 

Weather Highlights...The low off Cape Cod will pass NE over the 
nt1 waters later today, then move off to the NE tonight. Another
low will form over the outer central waters of the nt2 area 
tonight, then move NE Thu into Fri while strengthening and 
passing well E of the nt2 area. A cold front will approach the 
New England and mid Atlantic coasts later Sat, then move SE 
across the offshore waters Sat night through Sun night.

Models/Forecast...Main forecast problem is whether or not we 
will get storm force winds over the outer nt2 waters on Thu and 
Thu night. Last two runs of the medium range models show that 
the developing low will reach storm force, but the storm force 
winds will be just E of the northern and central nt2 waters. So 
as was done earlier, will stick with strong gales for now up to 
45 kt. The last two runs of the gfs have been faster than the 
other models with the speed of advance of the developing low for 
tonight into Fri, so the new 12z ecmwf will be used for the wind 
grids for tonight through Fri because it is a more representative
model solution. Then will use the previous grids for Fri night 
through the rest of the forecast period in order to maintain the 
forecast trend, which is based on an older run of the ecmwf. 
Given that the nam and all of the medium range forecast models 
have gales in the nt2 waters for tonight into early Thu night, 
confidence in the warnings is high.

Seas...Wna wavewatch and ecmwf wam both initialized reasonably 
well over the offshore waters versus recent observations. The 
ecmwf wam is several feet higher with the wave heights over the 
outer nt2 waters for tonight into early Fri, so will use a 50/50
blend of the 12z wna wavewatch/ecmwf wam into early Fri to 
smooth out the model differences. Then will use an older run of 
the ecmwf wam exclusively for later Fri through the rest of the 
forecast period, in order to be consistent with the preferred 
ecwmf wind grids.

Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Thursday.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Storm Thursday.
     Gale Thursday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Storm Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 
.ANZ828...Inner Waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale tonight.
     Storm Thursday.
     Gale Thursday night.
.ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 
.ANZ833...Inner Waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Gale tonight.
     Storm Thursday.
     Gale Thursday night.
.ANZ835...Inner Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale tonight into Thursday. 

$$

.Forecaster Collins/Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:01:20Z, 18 January 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT21 KWBC 180148
OFFNT1

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

New England continental shelf and slope waters from 25 nm
offshore to the Hague Line, except to 1000 fm south of New
England.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ898-181445-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR NEW ENGLAND WATERS...A weak low pressure will 
continue moving east and away from the waters this evening. 
Another low pressure just off the North Carolina coast will 
rapidly intensify while passing S and SE of the area tonight 
through Fri. A high pressure ridge will build E into the waters S
of the area Thu night through Sun night. A cold front will 
approach from the NW late Sat, move SE across the waters Sat 
night into Sun, then pass S of the area late Sun and Sun night 
while weakening. Another ridge will build SE over the waters Sun 
night into Mon night as a warm front approaches the area from the
SW. 

$$

ANZ800-181445-
Gulf of Maine to the Hague Line-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to
12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming NE 15 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft. 

$$

ANZ805-181445-
Georges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fm-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to
7 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N 20 to 30 kt. Seas
4 to 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.SUN...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming NE 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E to NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ900-181445-
Georges Bank between 68W and the Hague Line-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt. Seas
5 to 7 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt. Seas
5 to 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas
5 to 7 ft. 
.SAT...W to SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.SUN...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming NE 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 5 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E to NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

ANZ810-181445-
South of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk
Point to 1000 fm-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 5 to 7 ft. Chance of rain. 
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.FRI...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming N to NE.
Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.MON...E to NE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E to SE 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

ANZ815-181445-
South of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to
1000 fm-
848 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming NW. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Light
freezing spray early. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to
9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to NW. Seas 2 to
4 ft. 
.MON...E to NE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 6 ft. 

$$

.Forecaster Collins. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:01:49Z, 18 January 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT22 KWBC 180149
OFFNT2

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

West central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters
beyond 20 nm to 250 nm offshore, including south of Georges Bank
from 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ899-181445-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...Low pressure centered about 60 nm
to the SW of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, will rapidly intensify 
while moving northeast across the central and northern portions
overnight through Thu night. The low will clear well east of the
area Fri. A cold front will approach the area from the NW Sat, 
move into the northern waters Sat night, then weaken across the 
central waters Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, a high pressure 
ridge will build E over the area Thu night through Sun night, 
then shift E of the waters Mon and Mon night as a cold front 
approaches the Eastern Seaboard. 

$$

ANZ820-181445-
Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fm-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to
10 ft. Light freezing spray.
.THU...N to NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Light freezing
spray early.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W to NW winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4
to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming NW. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON...E to NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SE. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 3
to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ915-181445-
Between 1000 fm and 38.5N west of 69W-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9
ft. Chance of rain.
.THU...N winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas building
to 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft.
.FRI...W to NW winds diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 6
to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt. Seas building
to 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...NW winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt, then becoming W. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E to NE 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4
ft.
.MON NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

ANZ920-181445-
Baltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fm and south of 38.5N to
250 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to
10 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...N winds becoming 35 to 45 kt, then increasing to 40 to 50 kt.
Seas building to 13 to 22 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds becoming 30 to 40 kt, then diminishing to 20
to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding
to 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W to NW winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4
to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Winds veering to E to SE 10 to 20 kt. Seas building to
3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ905-181445-
East of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fm and 39N-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NW. Seas 5 to 7
ft.
.THU...N to NE winds 15 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 11 ft. Chance of rain.
.THU NIGHT...N to NW winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas building to 9 to 16 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...NW winds diminishing to 15 to 25 kt, then becoming W 15 to 20
kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...W to SW winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 8
to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NW winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt, then becoming W 5 to 10
kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...Winds increasing to E to NE 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E to NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ910-181445-
East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NE 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 6 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
.THU...NE winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt, then becoming N 40 to 50
kt. Seas building to 10 to 17 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU NIGHT...N to NW winds 35 to 50 kt, becoming NW 25 to 35 kt.
Seas building to 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW winds diminishing to 20 to 25 kt, then becoming W 15 to 20
kt. Seas subsiding to 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas becoming 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 9
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N to NE winds less than 10 kt, becoming E to SE. Seas 3
to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ825-181445-
Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to
13 ft. Chance of snow with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...N to NW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas
building to 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10
ft.
.FRI...W to NW winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3
to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to SW 15 to 20 kt. Seas
3 to 5 ft.
.SAT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to NW 5 to 15 kt. Seas
3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 1 to 3
ft.
.MON...E to SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming SE 10 to 20 kt. Seas
1 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 3 to 6
ft.

$$

ANZ828-181445-
Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to
9 ft, building to 8 to 14 ft. Chance of light freezing rain early.
Snow and rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...N to NW winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming NW 20
to 30 kt. Seas building to 11 to 19 ft. Chance of rain.
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to
4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...Winds diminishing to N to NW 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3
to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas
subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
.MON...E winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SE 10 to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 3
ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ925-181445-
Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N to NE 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8
to 13 ft. Showers and TSTMs. VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...N to NW winds increasing to 45 to 60 kt. Seas building to 14
to 28 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds becoming 30 to 40 kt, then diminishing to 20
to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 24 ft, subsiding to 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding
to 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...W winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to NW. Seas
subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...N to NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming E to SE. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt. Seas
building to 3 to 6 ft.

$$

ANZ830-181445-
Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to
9 ft, building to 9 to 15 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...NW winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas building to 12 to 20 ft. Rain with
VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds becoming 20 to 30 kt, then diminishing to 10
to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT and SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas
2 to 4 ft.
.MON...S to SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 4
to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ833-181445-
Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N to NE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming N to NW 35 to 45 kt.
Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 9 to 15 ft. Rain with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU...NW winds 30 to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas
building to 12 to 20 ft. Scattered showers. Areas of fog with VSBY 1
nm or less early.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 2 to
4 ft.
.MON...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Seas 1
to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 4
to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ930-181445-
Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear between 100 nm and 250 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...STORM WARNING...

.TONIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to NW 35 to 45 kt.
Seas 7 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 14 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.
.THU...W to NW winds increasing to 45 to 60 kt, then becoming NW 35
to 45 kt. Seas building to 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds becoming 25 to 35 kt, then diminishing to 20
to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...W to NW winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, then becoming W 10
to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, diminishing to less than 10 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...Variable winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Winds becoming S to SE 10 to 20 kt. Seas building to 4
to 7 ft.

$$

ANZ835-181445-
Cape Fear to 31N to 1000 fm-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...W to NW winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Scattered
showers.
.THU...NW winds 30 to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas
building to 11 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN...W to NW winds diminishing to less than 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 5 to 15
kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
.MON...Winds becoming SE 10 to 20 kt, then becoming S. Seas building
to 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 to 8 ft.

$$

ANZ935-181445-
Cape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fm to 250 nm offshore-
849 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to
10 ft, building to 9 to 15 ft. Scattered showers with VSBY 1 nm or
less.
.THU...W to NW winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas building to 12 to 20 ft.
Scattered showers with VSBY 1 nm or less.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds becoming 15 to 25 kt, then diminishing to 10
to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to
6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN...W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W to SW 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 2 to 4
ft.
.MON...S to SE winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas
2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S to SE winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas building
to 4 to 7 ft.

$$

.Forecaster Collins. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:01:51Z, 18 January 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZNT01 KWBC 180346
HSFAT1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA IV 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 
0430 UTC THU JAN 18 2018 

CCODE/1:31:04:01:00/AOW/NWS/CCODE 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY 
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 
ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT 
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE). 

PAN PAN 

NORTH ATLANTIC NORTH OF 31N TO 67N AND WEST OF 35W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JAN 18 
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JAN 19 
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JAN 20 

.WARNINGS. 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING... 
.LOW 34N74W 1014 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. 
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 10 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N72W 1009 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 360 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N72W 999 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N68W 992 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 120 NM 
W QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N65W 990 MB. WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT 
WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM S 
AND 180 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. ALSO 
WITHIN 660 NE...420 NM SE...540 NM SW...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS 
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N48W 986 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E AND S 
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
34N TO 49N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 
FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.LOW 43N65W 1012 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E AND NE 
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N52W 996 MB. FROM 46N TO 49N E OF 42W 
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 46N TO 54N 
BETWEEN 35W AND 52W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N46W 981 MB. FROM 57N TO 60N BETWEEN 38W 
AND 49W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM SW QUADRANT AND N OF 60N E OF 
GREENLAND WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.LOW 62N38W 980 MB MOVING E 10 KT. FROM 52N TO 62N E OF 47W 
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW WELL E OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 
57N AND E OF 39W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WELL E OF AREA. 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING... 
.MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS 
N OF 64N W OF GREENLAND. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 65N W OF 
GREENLAND. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.DENSE FOG. 24 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM 
FROM 42N TO 48N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 47N TO 53N E OF 38W. 

.HIGH 46N48W 1031 MB MOVING E 40 KT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH E OF AREA. 

.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU JAN 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI JAN 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT JAN 20.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W. N OF 29N W OF FRONT NW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N70W TO 21N77W. N OF 30N 
WITHIN 180 NM W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT OUTSIDE BAHAMAS. N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 25N69W THEN 
STATIONARY TO 20N75W. N OF OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 71W NW WINDS 20 
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. S OF 24N W OF FRONT TO 77W NE WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO 79W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL OUTSIDE BAHAMAS. N OF 
29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N50W TO 25N59W THEN 
STATIONARY TO 20N72W. W OF FRONT TO 72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. 

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...   
.COLD FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N91W TO 18N92W. S OF 21N W OF 94W 
NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 
FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST FRONT SE OF AREA. TROUGH FROM 26N96W TO 21N96W 
TO 18N94W. W OF TROUGH NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. S OF 25N E OF 95W 
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 22N97W TO 19N95W. S OF 22N W OF 
93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC FROM 10N TO 23N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT IN NE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 25N E OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 21N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N AND NE SWELL. 

.CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM 22N80W TO 16N85W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 20N77W TO 15N83W. NW OF FRONT 
NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 20N76W TO 14N83W. W OF 
FRONT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W 
AND 85W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL. 

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Last Update:03:47Z, 18 January 2018
Updates: Four times per day