118 AGNT40 KWNM 240039 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 740 PM EST MON 23 NOV 2009 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. GOES IR IMGRY INDC AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE OFHR WTRS...AND THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC THE LOW CTR ALNG THE N CAROLINA COAST. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC WNDS UP TO 25 KT ALNG THE COAST...AND THE 18Z GFS IS INIT OK WHEN COMPARED TO THE CRNT DATA...WITH GALES AHD OF THE SYS OVR NRN NT2 AND NT1. THE 18Z GFS INDC ABT THE SAME...AND WITH GALES IN THE PREV FCST CONSISTENT WITH THE GUID WL CONT IN THE UPDATE PKG. THE MDLS HAVE SOME SLGT DIFFS ON THE CRNT LOW OVR NT2 AS IT MOVS TO THE NE OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE GFS SPLITS THE ENERGY AND DVLPS 2 CTRS AS IT MOVS THRU NT1. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE SMLR...BUT THE UKMET AND CANDN KEEP THE SYS CONSOLIDATED. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL CONT WITH THE PREV FCST...ALTHO WL TREND SLGTLY TWD THE GFS. IN THE EXTENDED...THE MDLS INDC A STG UPR LVL TROF THRU THE AREA THU INTO SAT...AND ARE IN GUD AGRMT WITH THE TMG AND INTNSTY OF THE ASSOC SFC FEATURE. THE GFS INDC GALES ACRS THE WTRS TO HTRS CNYN FRI INTO SAT...WHICH LOOKS OK WITH THE INTNSTY OF THE UPR LVL TROF. THE PREV FCST FLWD ALNG THE LINES OF THE MDL...SO XPCT NO MAJPR CHANGES FM BEFORE. PREV DISCUSSION... AT 18Z THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWED E TO NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT FROM THE NW CORNER OF BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON TO THE GULF OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE WINDS WERE E TO NE 15 TO 20 KT N OF HATTERAS CANYON...SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE E PORTIONS FROM HATTERAS CANYON S TO 31N AND W TO NW OVER THE W PORTIONS. SEAS WERE 8 TO 13 FT BETWEEN CAPE COD AND TO THE VA CAPES...3 TO 6 FT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND 3 TO 8 FT S OF THE VA CAPES. A LOW PRES SW OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NE THIS AFT AND CROSSING CAPE HATTERAS BY EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TONIGHT MOVING TO SW GEORGES BANK BY TUE MORNING AND E OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE N WATERS WED THEN PASS E OF THE AREA THU. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT AND TRACK NE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU THEN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SAT. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI AND SAT. THE MODELS HAVE THE GENERAL PATTERN BUT THE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT TERM AND FOR THE EXTENDED. FOR THE SHORT TERM THE GFS TRACK A LOW ACROSS CAPE HATTERAS AND TOWARD GEORGES BANK TNGT AND TUE. THE OTHER MODELS DUE THE SAME...HWVR HARD TO TELL OF A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS JUST S OF GEORGES BANK TONIGHT THEN THEY MERGE DURING THE DAY TUE AND MOVE OFF TO THE NE. HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GRADIENT N AND W OF THE LOW NEAR GEORGES BANK TONIGHT AND TUE. THE GEMS IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS THE GFS WITH THE OTHER MODELS WEAKER OR SUB GALE. FOR THE SECOND LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO SAT WILL THE HPC MED RANGE FOR GUIDANCE. THE WINDS/SEAS WILL BE A COMPROMISE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ONCE THE LOW IS N OF THE ZONE. THE GFS...EC...GEM AND UKMET ALL HAVE 35 KT OVER THE W OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH 35 KT BUT EXPECT TO INC AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSERS. FOR SEAS WILL BE USING THE WNA WITHOUT MUCH ADJUSTMENT. THE SEAS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE INC FRI AND SAT IF THE MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT AND WINDS ARE INC. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE...FCST LVLS REACH JUST OVER 1 TO 2 FT FROM THE VA CAPES TO LONG ISLAND NY TONIGHT AND TUE. .WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... .GULF OF MAINE...GALE OVRNGT INTO TUE...LOW CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. .GEORGES BANK...GALE OVRNGT INTO TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. .S OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE OVRNGT INTO TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... .HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. .BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE OVRNGT E PART...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. .BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. .HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. .CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. .FORECASTER KELLS/OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.