393 
AGNT40 KWNM 180633
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
226 AM EDT SUN 18 MAY 2008 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

UNSEASONABLE WX PTTRN WILL CONT OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS UPR 5H 
LOW OVR ONT SPINS E THRU TUE WITH TWO SEPERATE LOWS...THEN CONTG 
E SE TO OVR VCNTY 45N 65W BY LATE THU. IN THE NEAR TERM...SFC 
LOW E OF GEORGES BANK LAST EVNG AS MVNG WELL OF TO THE E NE AND 
WL LET GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE. WINDS AT 44011 HV QUICKLY DMNSHD TO 
SW 10 KT. WEAK SFC LOW OVR IL WILL ZIP E TO S NEW ENGLAND BY 
THIS EVENING THEN MOV NE TO OVE MAINE SUN NGT. LOW WL PULL COLD 
FRNT E ACRS THE WATERS TNGT. MODELS HV BN CONSISTENT IN TIMING 
OF CLD FRNT. QSTN IS STRNGTH OF SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW AND 
CLD FRNT.
LL WINDS NOT TOO IMPRSV AS LL STBLTIES INCRS. XPCT GALES PSBL 
OVR THE GF STRM LATE TDY AND EARLY TNGT N OF HTTRS CNYN TO 
HUDSON CNYN...THOUGH CONDS VRY MRGNL. BRF CAA SURGE BEHIND FRNT 
WL BRING A SOLID 25 TO 30 KT GRADIENT...THOUGH OCCNL INCRSNG TO 
35 KT PSBL. CONDS VRY MRGNL...SINCE GALE WARNGS ALREADY IN 
PLACE...WL KP GALE UP FOR THE S OF NEW ENGLNAD AND GEORGES BANK 
WATERS FOR LATE SUN NGT AND MON.

NEXT CONCERN IS LOW FCST OFF THE VA CAPES TUE. THE GFS HAS BN 
CONSISTENT IN LOCTN...BUT INCONSISTENT IN TIMING OF THE LOW MVNG 
OFFSHR. THE GFS IS STILL FASTER THEN THE UKMET/CDN/ECMWF AND THE 
GLOBAL ENSMBLS. FLLWG COORDINATION WITH HPC...PREFER THE TIMING 
OF THE NAM FOR LATE TUE...WHICH IS ABOUT A FULL SIX HRS SLOWER 
THEN THE GFS AND HAS SUPPORT OF UKMET/ECMWF/GFS 12Z ENSMBL. 
PERFER THE NAM/GFS INTENSITY. BY EARLY WED...THE NAM AND GFS 
SEEM TO BCMNG IN BTTR AGRNMNT WITH LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS 
ASSD WITH THIS LOW WL INCRS TO MINML GALES JUST S OF BALT CNYN 
LATE TUE...WITH GALES SPREADING OVR THE SE PRTN OF HUDSON TO 
BALT CNYN TUE NGT. ELSEWHERE S OF THE LOW TRACK...AM PLANING ON 
HOLDING WINDS TO 30 KT AHD OF CLD FRNT...WHCH BCMS STNRY NR CAPE 
FEAR TUE NGT...THERN DRIFTS N WED.

FOR SEAS...THE WAVE WATCH FCST LOOKS FINE. THE NEW RUN IS SMLR 
TO PRVS WV WATCH RUNS. 

WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS 
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE MON...LOW CONFDC. GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE MON...LOW CONFDC. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE TONIGHT INTO MON...LOW CONFDC. GALE 
TUE INTO WED...MDT CONFDC.
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE TONIGHT...LOW CONFDC. GALE 
TUE INTO WED...MDT CONFDC.
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.