221 
AGNT40 KWNM 141903
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
155 PM EST TUE 14 FEB 2012 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E ACROSS THE SRN NT2 OFFSHORE 
WATERS. A WARM FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A LOW PRES 
CENTER HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SRN ALABAMA COAST. WINDS ACROSS 
THE REGION WERE SW 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT W OF 75W VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS WERE 2 TO 6 FT W OF 69W AND 6 TO 8 FT E OF 69W.  

SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER SRN ALABAMA WILL MOVE 
NE ALONG THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFT AND INTO THE SRN AND 
CENTRAL NT2 WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA WED. THE 
LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WATERS. HIGH 
PRES WILL BUILD E OVER THE WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN DRIFT 
TO THE E THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THU 
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT WITH THE 
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. EACH MODEL HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT 
LOCATION WHEN DEVELOPING A 3 PT LOW ON THE FRONT. FOR THE SHORT 
TERM THE WINDS SHIFT TO NW FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUT WILL NOT INC 
TO GALE FORCE UNTIL FRI. 

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER ON THE COLD FRONT PULLS 
IT E OF THE AREA FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION SAT WITH 
A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE NT1 WATERS. THE HIGH 
WEAKENS SUN WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER PASSING S THEN E 
OF THE WATERS. PLAN TO USE THE COLD FRONT FOR TIMING ON FRI WITH 
WINDS INC TO 20 TO 30 KT E OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFTING TO NW 
25 TO 35 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC ARE THE 
MODELS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER 
BUT VERY CLOSE WITH THE PATTERN. THE GALE WILL BE E OF 70W OVER 
BOTH NT1 AND NT2...EXCEPT HOLDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TO 30 KT. 
ON SUN THE GFS/CMC AND ECWMF ALL HAVE A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING 
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THEN TRAVELING NE ACROSS THE SRN NT2 
WATERS. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE WHILE THE GFS IS MOVE 
SUPPRESSED. THE UKMET IS VERY WEAK. PLAN TO MENTION GALE FORCDE 
WINDS BUT WILL STAY S OF HATTERAS CANYON. ALSO FOR SUN WILL LEAN 
TOWARD THE CMC/ECMWF. 

SEAS...THE WAVE WATCH MODEL LOOKS GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL 
ALSO GO WITH THE MODEL INTO SAT THEN BLEND WITH THE ECWMF WAM ON 
SUN. 

EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE SURGE MODEL HAS NOT 
RUN YET TODAY.  

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS 
.GULF OF MAINE...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE...FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...NONE. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE SUN...LOW CONFDC.  
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE SUN...LOW CONFDC.  

.FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.