NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Atlantic Marine Discussion

                   
                     
612 
AGNT40 KWNM 042343
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
745 PM EDT SAT 4 JUL 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. 
THE 18Z GFS WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS...AND 
ALSO CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z 
ECMWF/GEM/NOGAPS AND JMA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN 
FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW 
WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE ATL JUST N OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE 
SUN NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GOOD RUN TO RUN 
CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 18Z GFS IS A BIT SLIGHTLY 
FURTHER TO THE N WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND DOES INDICATE 
SOME GALES FOR THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE BALT CANYON TO HAGUE 
WATERS. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY S AND BASED THIS WILL 
LEAVE GALES OUT OF THIS AREA FOR NOW. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE 
TO DEVLOP ANOTHER LOW FURTHER S OVER THE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR 
WATERS LATER MON. THE 10 M WINDS OFF THE GFS INDICATE WINDS 
REMAINING JUST BELOW GALE SO WILL TOP OFF WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT. 
THE LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT THE WW3 VALUES ARE 
RUNNING CLSOE TO THE OBSERVATIONS. 

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST AVAIL QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1014Z THIS MRNG WAS SHOWING MAINLY 
W TO SW WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. SHIP 
AND BUOY OBS AT 16Z ARE SHOWING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PICTURE AS 
THE QUIKSCAT DATA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO 19 KT AT A 
FEW OF THE BUOYS. 

A TROF WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THIS AFTN INTO SUN 
MRNG. ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE E OVER THE NT1 WTRS LATER SUN THRU 
TUE. A DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC CST LATE SUN 
NITE...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS MON INTO MON NITE. 
THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FNT E OVER THE NT2 WTRS MON THRU TUE. A 
RDG WILL BLD OVR THE NT2 WTRS LATE TUE...THEN PASS E OF THE 
OFSHR WTRS ON WED. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPCTD TO APPROACH THE CAPE 
FEAR AREA WED...THEN MOVE E INTO THE SRN WTRS ON THU. THE RDG 
WILL REBUILD NW OVER THE NRN NT2 AND NT1 WTRS LATE WED...THEN 
PERSIST ON THU. 

12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT OVER THE OFSHR 
AREAS THRU WED. 12Z GEM SUPPORTS THE ECMWF/GFS SOLNS INTO TUE 
MRNG...BUT THEN OVERDVLPS THE LOW MOVG E ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS 
LATER ON TUE. THE 12Z UKMET IS HAVING TIMING PROBLEMS OVER THE 
MON THRU WED TIMEFRAME. 12Z NOGAPS IS SUPPORTING THE ECMWF/GFS 
SOLNS...BUT OVERDVLPS THE LOW AS IT PASSES S OF NOVA SCOTIA MON 
NITE INTO TUE. SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STILL THE PREFERRED 
MDL SOLNS...AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE 
CURRENT FCST TREND. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE. 
.GEORGES BANK...NONE. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LOW TO 
MDT CONFDC. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. 

.FORECASTER KOSIER/SCOVIL. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.