NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Atlantic Marine Discussion

                   
                     
653 
AGNT40 KWNM 231902
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1138 AM EST MON 23 NOV 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

AT 18Z THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWED E TO NE WINDS 15 TO 25 
KT FROM THE NW CORNER OF BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON TO 
THE GULF OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE WINDS WERE E TO NE 15 TO 20 KT N OF 
HATTERAS CANYON...SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE E PORTIONS FROM 
HATTERAS CANYON S TO 31N AND W TO NW OVER THE W PORTIONS. SEAS 
WERE 8 TO 13 FT BETWEEN CAPE COD AND TO THE VA CAPES...3 TO 6 FT 
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND 3 TO 8 FT S OF THE VA CAPES. 

A LOW PRES SW OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NE THIS AFT AND 
CROSSING CAPE HATTERAS BY EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE 
TONIGHT MOVING TO SW GEORGES BANK BY TUE MORNING AND E OF THE 
AREA TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT E 
ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER 
THE N WATERS WED THEN PASS E OF THE AREA THU. ANOTHER LOW WILL 
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT AND TRACK NE 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU THEN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST 
FRI AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SAT. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI AND SAT.  

THE MODELS HAVE THE GENERAL PATTERN BUT THE CONTINUES TO BE SOME 
DISAGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT TERM AND FOR THE EXTENDED. FOR THE 
SHORT TERM THE GFS TRACK A LOW ACROSS CAPE HATTERAS AND TOWARD 
GEORGES BANK TNGT AND TUE. THE OTHER MODELS DUE THE SAME...HWVR 
HARD TO TELL OF A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS JUST S OF GEORGES BANK 
TONIGHT THEN THEY MERGE DURING THE DAY TUE AND MOVE OFF TO THE 
NE. HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GRADIENT N AND W OF 
THE LOW NEAR GEORGES BANK TONIGHT AND TUE. THE GEMS IS ABOUT AS 
STRONG AS THE GFS WITH THE OTHER MODELS WEAKER OR SUB GALE. 

FOR THE SECOND LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO SAT WILL 
THE HPC MED RANGE FOR GUIDANCE. THE WINDS/SEAS WILL BE A 
COMPROMISE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ONCE THE LOW 
IS N OF THE ZONE. THE GFS...EC...GEM AND UKMET ALL HAVE 35 KT 
OVER THE W OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH 35 KT BUT 
EXPECT TO INC AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSERS.  

FOR SEAS WILL BE USING THE WNA WITHOUT MUCH ADJUSTMENT. THE SEAS 
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE INC FRI AND SAT IF THE MODEL REMAINS 
CONSISTENT AND WINDS ARE INC. 

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE...FCST LVLS REACH JUST OVER 1 TO 2 FT 
FROM THE VA CAPES TO LONG ISLAND NY TONIGHT AND TUE.  

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 
.GULF OF MAINE...GALE TNGT INTO TUE...LOW CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO 
SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE TNGT INTO TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE FRI 
INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC.  
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE TNGT INTO TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE 
FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.  

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.  
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE TNGT E PART...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 
GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. 

.FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.