NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Atlantic Marine Discussion

                   
                     
000 
AGNT40 KWNM 071909
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1228 PM EST SAT 7 NOV 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AND THE LATEST SFC OBS SHOWED W TO NW 
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT E OF 67W 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GULF OF 
MAINE...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE 
HATTERAS AND N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO 
31N. SEAS WERE 3 TO 6 FT OVER NT2 W OF 1000 FM...THE W PORTION 
OF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF OF MAINE AND 6 TO 10 FT 
ELSEWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST 9 TO 10 FT E OF 67W.  

HIGH PRES BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE E OF THE NT1 WATERS 
OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING ACROSS NT2. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE N WATERS SUN STALL OVER THE CENTRAL NT2 WATERS SUN 
NIGHT THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT MON. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL 
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD 
FRONT OFF THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AND E OF 
THE AREA WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE 
FRONT WED AND THU. THE REMNANTS OF T.S.IDA ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WELL SW OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  

THE MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE THEN THE GFS TAKE 
IDA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS 
THE AREA. THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR 
NUDGE IT TO THE SW. THIS WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WITH THE 
GFS DIVERGING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL 
NOT USE THE GFS FOR DAY 4 OR 5 BUT GO WITH THE HPC MED RANGE AND 
THE EC. PLAN TO KEEP THE GALE WINDS FOR WED BUT NOT EXTEND INTO 
THU FOR ANY ZONE. THE LOW PASSING ACROSS MAINE TUE NIGHT WILL 
HAVE STRONG NW FLOW WHICH SHOULD INC WINDS TO GALE WED FROM GULF 
OF MAINE S TO CAPE HATTERAS...THEN S OF HATTERAS TO 31N THE HIGH 
RIDGE INTO AREA SET UP A NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. HAVE 
LOW CONFDC IN LOW MOVE NE INTO NT2 PER GEM OR E ACROSS FL BUT S 
OF NT2. 

FOR SEAS HAVE USE THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 THROUGH TUE. THEN 
WITH SEAS BUILDING WED HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE AND FOR 
THU WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE WAVE WATCH IS DRIVEN BY THE GFS SO 
LOW CONFDC IN GUIDANCE AFT WED.  

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 
.GULF OF MAINE...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE WED...LOW CONFDC. 

.FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.