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NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>Marine>Atlantic>Offshore>North Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion

North Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion

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AGNT40 KWNM 261602 CCA
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1056 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

The 15Z preminary advisory on Maria has the center near 33.6N 
73.1W with a 971 mb central pressure with maximum sustained 
winds of 65 kt. The latest NHC track closely follows the 00Z/06Z 
GFS and 00Z ECMWF through 36 hours then the ECMWF begins to lag 
behind and becomes a slow outlier while UKMET tracks Maria to 
the S and lags behind by 48 hours. The 00Z/06Z GFS looks 
reasonable through 72 hours as Maria passes well east of the 
offshore waters. With the current grids based on the 00Z GFS as 
background grids, see no need to update the winds to the newer 
06Z GFS. After Maria moves out, the 06Z GFS is similar to the 
00Z GFS out to 5 days and with good model support, will continue 
to use existing grids based on the 00Z GFS. No warning headlines 
are needed at this time after Maria passes.

Seas...Will use the official grids for seas based on the 00Z
Wavewatch III based on that model being used for winds (modified
of course using the TCM wind tool) with some editing in first
period to trim back seas south of Maria by a couple of feet based
on observed seas at buoy 41002.

KEY MESSAGES...UPDATE:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling 
the U.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring 
some direct impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast 
through Wednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge 
warning and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North 
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east 
coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting 
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather 
office for more information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Note: Warnings below are preliminary, and will be modified based
on the next NHC advisory for Hurricane Maria. 

Buoy 41002 reported 37 kt with gusts to 47 kt in the srn NT2
offshore waters to the W of Hurricane Maria at 0600 UTC, and 
buoy 41048 to the E of Maria reported 27 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Ascat again largely missed the highest winds associated with 
Maria overnight, though the overpasses between 01Z and 03Z
indicated tropical storm force winds in srn and central NT2 with
up to 50 kt in the far outer waters. The 00Z GFS 10m winds
indicated up to 65 kt in zone ANZ930 at 0600 UTC while the
normally conservative 00Z ECMWF surface winds indicated up to 55
kt. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GEM models all forecast Maria to move
slowly N over the next few days and take the center of Maria to
roughly 120 NM to the E of Cape Hatteras tonight into Wed. The
models then indicate an upper trough moving off the New England 
coast will steer the tropical system off to the E. The models 
agree well on the track into Wed night, then start diverging on
the timing of the trough and the associated eastward turn of
Maria. The 00Z ECMWF has trended slower with the trough and the
subsequent track of Maria, and is a bit of a slow outlier
solution. The 00Z GFS agrees somewhat well with the timing of 
the 00Z UKMET/GEM/NAM while Maria is in the W Atlc, so planning
on starting out with the 00Z GFS 10m winds for the background
wind grids in next forecast, and continuing with it into Fri.
However, will need to adjust the timing of it to match the next
official forecast from NHC.

The 00Z GFS also indicates a cold front will pass SE over the
waters in the medium range, and takes it SE through the NT2 by
the end of the forecast period. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower
than the overall consensus of the 00Z GFS/UKMET, mainly due to
the aforementioned slower trough associated with steering Maria
off to the E. As a result of the better model support, am
planning on continuing with the 00Z GFS through the remainder of
the forecast period.

Seas...the 00Z Wavewatch and ECMWF are initialized within a ft or
two of the current data, and are in reasonably good agreement in
the short range mainly due to the good agreement of the
associated weather models. The Wavewatch then becomes faster with
taking the seas associated with Hurricane Maria off to the E in
conjunction with the faster GFS solution. However, with the 00Z
ECMWF becoming a slow outlier, planning on starting out with the
00Z Wavewatch and make timing adjustments based on the next NHC 
advisory.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...For surge information 
related to Maria please see the latest information provided by 
NHC and local WFO coastal offices.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling 
the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts 
will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning 
today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning today, and a 
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North 
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, 
the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, 
and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office for more information.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Tropical Storm Wednesday night.
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles 
Light...     Tropical Storm tonight into Wednesday night. 
.ANZ828...Inner Waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck 
Beach Light...     Tropical Storm today into Wednesday night. 
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras 
Canyon...     Tropical Storm today into Wednesday night. 
Tropical Storm Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape 
Hatteras...     Tropical Storm today into Wednesday night. 
.ANZ833...Inner Waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear...
     Tropical Storm today into Wednesday night. 
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Hurricane today.
     Tropical Storm tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Tropical Storm Possible Thursday.
.ANZ835...Inner Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Tropical Storm today into tonight. 
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Hurricane today.
     Tropical Storm tonight.

$$

.Forecaster Bancroft/Kells. Ocean Prediction Center.


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP)
Ocean Prediction Center
Mr. Darin Figurskey
Chief, Ocean Forecast Branch
NCWCP, W/NP41
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740-3818

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Page last modified:  Monday, July 25, 2016 12:55:54 UTC