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N Atlantic Marine Discussion |
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710
AGNT40 KWNM 140148
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EST MON 13 FEB 2012
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
AT 14/0000Z LOW PRES 971 MB IN THE DAVIS STRAIT HAS A CLD FRNT
STRETCHIN SE THEN SW TO PASS WELL E OF THE WATRS. A QSTNRY FRNT
LIES ACROSS MAINE AND WHILE A WEAK HGH PRES 1015 MB CNTRD NW OF
MAIN XTNDS A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE NRN WTRS. ANOTHER BROAD HGH
PRES IS COVRING THE SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT IS VERY SLCK AND
THE OBSVD HGST WINDS ARE ONLY REACHING 25 KT. NO LTST ASCAT BUT
LAST PASS ABOUT 1500Z HAD MAX WINDS REACHING ONLY 30 KT OVR THE
NRN WTRS. THE SEAS HV ALSO SUBSIDED AND ONLY 12 FT SEAS ARE
PAEKING OVR THE NE PARTS OF THE BALT CANYN WTRS. NWW3 AND ECMWF
WV MDLS FIT FAIRLY WELL WITH THE OBSVD SEAS PATTERN ESPCLY OVR
THE FCST REGION BUT ARE UNDERDONE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WHERE THE
HGST WINDS ARE AND THE OBSVD MAX SEAS ARE 27 FT COMPARED TO 21
FT FOR BOTH WV MDLS. OTHERWISE THE WV MDLS HAVE THESE HGH SEAS
IN THE SAME REGION AS THE OBSVD SEAS. THE GLBL MDLS ARE EQUALLY
IN AGRMNT ON THE OBSVD FEATURES AFFECTING THE WTRS AND HV
INITIALIZED WELL. IN THE SHORT TERM THE CNTR OF THE HGH PRES OVR
THE SRN WTRS WILL MV E OF THE REGION BUT STILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
RIDGE OVR THE SAME AREA. THE QSTNRY FRNT WILL BE PUSHED N OF THE
NRN WTRS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE S. W TO NW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W TO SW AND WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE AND AIR TEMPS
WILL BE HGHR THAN OF LATE. GFS WILL BE USED FOR THIS UPDATE.
------------------------------------------------------------
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED NE TO SW OVER THE FAR SE NT2 WATERS. A
STNRY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE
CENTER WAS OVER NRN ALABAMA. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE NW 15 TO 25 KT FROM HATTERAS CANYON N TO THE GULF OF
MAINE...NW 10 TO 15 KT S OF HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR AND
VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT S OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS AT 18Z WERE 3 TO 6 FT
IN THE FAR WRN WATERS AND FROM 6 TO 13 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE
HIGHEST IN THE ERN NT2 WATERS.
SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE NT2 WATERS WILL MOVE S
OF THE AREA BY EVENING. THE STNRY FRONT REMAINS OVERNIGHT OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TUE. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD E THIS AFT AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE. A
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE SE U.S. TUE NIGHT AND
ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS WED. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO
THE SRN WATERS WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING IN THE SRN WATERS WED
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT SO WILL GO
WITH THE GFS. THE NW FLOW ENDS THIS EVENING THEN WINDS STAY
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK LOW MOVES FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE NIGHT ACROSS NT2 WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS BUT HOLDS OFF ON ANY REAL DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THE LOW IS E OF THE NT2 WATERS.
LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE N WATERS EARLY THU
THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE STNRY FRONT IN
THE S WATERS LIFTS NE AS INLAND LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE NW NT2 AND SE NT1 WATERS FRI. THE LOW MOVES E OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE MID ATL
REGION.
SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE EXCEPT IT IS
KEEPING SEAS UP IN THE ERN WATERS SEAS COMPARED TO THE OBS. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDED FOR SHORT TERM SO WILL USE MODEL WITHOUT CHANGES.
FOR LONG TERM WILL BLEND WITH ECMWF WAM.
EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z ETSS INDICATED A -1 FT
SURGE FROM NEW JERSEY TO CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS SHOULD
END AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
.GULF OF MAINE...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC.
.GEORGES BANK...GALE...FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC.
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.
.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE.
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...NONE.
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...NONE.
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
.FORECASTER MUSONDA/OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Ocean Prediction Center
Attn: Anthony Siebers, W/NP41
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Phone: 301-763-8441
Fax: 301-763-8488 (SDM), 301-763-8085 (back office)
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Page last modified: Wednesday, August 17, 2011 19:48:07 UTC
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