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NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC> N Atlantic Marine Discussion

                   
                     
710 
AGNT40 KWNM 140148
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EST MON 13 FEB 2012 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

AT 14/0000Z LOW PRES 971 MB IN THE DAVIS STRAIT HAS A CLD FRNT 
STRETCHIN SE THEN SW TO PASS WELL E OF THE WATRS.  A QSTNRY FRNT 
LIES ACROSS MAINE AND WHILE A WEAK HGH PRES 1015 MB CNTRD NW OF 
MAIN XTNDS A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE NRN WTRS. ANOTHER BROAD HGH 
PRES IS COVRING THE SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT IS VERY SLCK AND 
THE OBSVD HGST WINDS ARE ONLY REACHING 25 KT. NO LTST ASCAT BUT 
LAST PASS ABOUT 1500Z HAD MAX WINDS REACHING ONLY 30 KT OVR THE 
NRN WTRS. THE SEAS HV ALSO SUBSIDED AND ONLY 12 FT SEAS ARE 
PAEKING OVR THE NE PARTS OF THE BALT CANYN WTRS. NWW3 AND ECMWF 
WV MDLS FIT FAIRLY WELL WITH THE OBSVD SEAS PATTERN ESPCLY OVR 
THE FCST REGION BUT ARE UNDERDONE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WHERE THE 
HGST WINDS ARE AND THE OBSVD MAX SEAS ARE 27 FT COMPARED TO 21 
FT FOR BOTH WV MDLS. OTHERWISE THE WV MDLS HAVE THESE HGH SEAS 
IN THE SAME REGION AS THE OBSVD SEAS. THE GLBL MDLS ARE EQUALLY 
IN AGRMNT ON THE OBSVD FEATURES AFFECTING THE WTRS AND HV 
INITIALIZED WELL. IN THE SHORT TERM THE CNTR OF THE HGH PRES OVR 
THE SRN WTRS WILL MV E OF THE REGION BUT STILL MAINTAIN A WEAK 
RIDGE OVR THE SAME AREA. THE QSTNRY FRNT WILL BE PUSHED N OF THE 
NRN WTRS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE S. W TO NW WINDS WILL 
SHIFT TO W TO SW AND WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE AND AIR TEMPS 
WILL BE HGHR THAN OF LATE. GFS WILL BE USED FOR THIS UPDATE.


------------------------------------------------------------
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...



A COLD FRONT EXTENDED NE TO SW OVER THE FAR SE NT2 WATERS. A 
STNRY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE 
CENTER WAS OVER NRN ALABAMA. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
WERE NW 15 TO 25 KT FROM HATTERAS CANYON N TO THE GULF OF 
MAINE...NW 10 TO 15 KT S OF HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR AND 
VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT S OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS AT 18Z WERE 3 TO 6 FT 
IN THE FAR WRN WATERS AND FROM 6 TO 13 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE 
HIGHEST IN THE ERN NT2 WATERS. 

SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE NT2 WATERS WILL MOVE S 
OF THE AREA BY EVENING. THE STNRY FRONT REMAINS OVERNIGHT OVER 
THE GULF OF MAINE THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TUE. HIGH PRES 
WILL BUILD E THIS AFT AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE. A 
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE SE U.S. TUE NIGHT AND 
ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS WED. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO 
THE SRN WATERS WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING IN THE SRN WATERS WED 
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT SO WILL GO 
WITH THE GFS. THE NW FLOW ENDS THIS EVENING THEN WINDS STAY 
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK LOW MOVES FROM THE GULF 
COAST TUE NIGHT ACROSS NT2 WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS 
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS BUT HOLDS OFF ON ANY REAL DEVELOPMENT 
UNTIL THE LOW IS E OF THE NT2 WATERS. 

LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE N WATERS EARLY THU 
THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE STNRY FRONT IN 
THE S WATERS LIFTS NE AS INLAND LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND 
ACROSS THE NW NT2 AND SE NT1 WATERS FRI. THE LOW MOVES E OF THE 
AREA BY EARLY SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE MID ATL 
REGION. 

SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE EXCEPT IT IS 
KEEPING SEAS UP IN THE ERN WATERS SEAS COMPARED TO THE OBS. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDED FOR SHORT TERM SO WILL USE MODEL WITHOUT CHANGES. 
FOR LONG TERM WILL BLEND WITH ECMWF WAM. 

EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z ETSS INDICATED A -1 FT 
SURGE FROM NEW JERSEY TO CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS SHOULD 
END AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS 
.GULF OF MAINE...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE...FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...NONE. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. 

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.