272 
AGNT40 KWNM 040539
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
140 AM EDT SAT 4 JUL 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 

THE QKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2300Z INDICATED WINDS OF 15 KT OR 
LESS OVER THE NT2 WATERS. OVER THE NT2 WATERS...WINDS WERE 
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. THERE WERE SOME STRONGER WINDS OF 30 TO 35 
KT OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE BALT CANYON TO HAGUE WATERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WHICH WERE ALSO RAIN FLAGGED. THE 00Z 
OPC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRES INLAND TO THE W OF THE GULF 
OF MAINE WATERS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS THE BT2 
WATERS. 

THE 00Z GFS INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EITHER THE 18Z 
OR 12Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. IT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS 
LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT. THE 00Z UKMET 
AND CMC WERE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF 
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. EVEN THE 10 METER WINDS OFF THE GFS 
INDICATES SOME 35 KT WINDS OVER THE BALT CANYON TO CAPE FEAR 
WATERS LATER SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. CONSIDERING THE 
GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THIS LOW AND HAS AT LEAST MODERATE 
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF WILL INDICATE GALES FOR THE BALT 
CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON 
MORNING. WILL MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS AFTER VIEWING NEW 00Z 
ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 KT FOR THE HATTERAS TO CAPE 
FEAR AND THE CAPE FEAR TO 31N ZONES. OVER THE NT1 
WATERS...EXPECT SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS AND EXTENDING E SUNDAY AS ANOTHER 
TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. 

THE WW3 APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZED WELL WITH OBSERVED VALUES 
RUNNING CLOSE TO THE MDL FCST. WILL PLAN ON GOING CLOSE TO THE 
MODEL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE. 
.GEORGES BANK...NONE. 
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE. 

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...NONE. 
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SUN 
NIGHT INTO MON...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. 

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.