032 
AGPN40 KWNM 231932
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM PST MON 23 NOV 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

RECENT VIS IMGRY REVEALS COLD FRONT DRAPED NE TO SW BISECTING 
THE WA OFSHR WTRS. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SFC WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY MINIMAL GALE FORCE AS HAS BEEN FORECAST...EVIDENCED BY 
A 35 KT SHIP REPORT ABT 90 NM TO THE WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT.  THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG S TO ABT THE CENTER 
OF THE OREGON WATERS...THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT 
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE HURCN FORCE LOW 
LIFTS NE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TMRW. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL 
GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE INTO WED (SUPPORTED BY 12Z 
GFS/NAM/CMC) AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES 
EWARD...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CONFDC LOW TO MDT FOR THIS EVENT.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WILL TEND TO 
STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION.  BASED ON GOOD 
CONTINUITY BETWEEN 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WILL GO AHEAD AND 
INTRODUCE GALES FOR THE NRN CAL WATERS AND ALL OF THE PZ5 ZONE 
BEGINNING EARLYT THU AND PERISTING INTO FRI AS A WAVE DEVELOPS 
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTS NE WHILE STRENGTHENING. WITH 
REGARDS TO INTENSITY WILL FORECAST A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION 
THAN THE GFS (WHICH INDICATES SFC WINDS EASILY REACHING STORM 
FORCE) AND FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GEM/UKMET...ALSO 
TOSSING OUT THE RECENT ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS ABT 15 MB 
STRONGER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE NW. 

SEAS...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW OUTPUT FROM THE WW3/ENP HOWEVER 
WILL TRIM VALUES BACK TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GALES AND THE GFS PRODUCES STORM 
FORCE WINDS.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE TNGT...HI CONFDC. GALE TUE 
NGT INTO WED...MDT CONFDC. GALE THU INTO EARLY FRI...LOW TO MDT 
CONFDC.
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE TNGT...MDT TO HI CONFDC. 
GALE TUE NGT INTO WED...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. GALE EARLY THU INTO 
EARLY FRI...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...GALE THU INTO EARLY FRI...LOW TO MDT 
CONFDC. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 

.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.