116 
AGPN40 KWNM 131949
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1250 PM PDT TUE 13 MAY 2008 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

A 1402Z QUIKSCAT PASS...AND LATEST SFC OBS...CONFIRMED THAT THE 
WINDS ACRS THE ERN CNTRL CA OFSHR WTRS HAD DMNSHD TO SUBGALE 
(25-30 KT) WHICH IS WHAT THE 12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZED RSNBLY 
WELL. PER THE 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM BL WIND FCSTS THO BY THIS EVENING 
EXPECT NLY GALES TO REDVLP ACRS THE NE MOST PT ARENA TO PT 
CONCEP WTRS AS PREVLY FCST. THESE MDLS THEN RMN CONSISTENT IN 
FCSTG THE NLY GALES TO SPREAD NWD WED/WED NITE INTO THE ERN PT 
ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA WATERS WHL STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. THEN ON 
THU IT STIL LOOKS CLOSE AS TO WHETHER THESE NLY GALES WL SPREAD 
N INTO THE SE CP LOOKOUT TO PT ST GEORGE WTRS ON THU. THE 12Z 
NAM/GEM CONT TO FCST SOLID GALE FORCE BL WINDS DVLPG OVER THESE 
WTRS WHL THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FCST A WEAKER GRADIENT WITH PRIMARILY 
25-35 KT BL WINDS. THIS LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHR 
IF WRNGS ARE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA THEY WON/T HAPPEN AND 
VICE-VERSA. WITH THE GFS HAVING VERIFIED SMWHT BETTER 
RECENTLY...FOR NOW WL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FAVOR THE WEAKER 
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND WL KEEP GALES OUT OF THESE WTRS. BUT THIS 
SITUATION WL HV TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE FUTURE MDL RUNS. 
SO OVERALL NO SIG CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST 
PACKAGE RGRDG THIS NLY GRADIENT. 

IN THE LONG RANGE...SAT INTO SUN...WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS 
FCSTG GNRLY WEAK GRADIENTS THRUT MUCH OF THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS ONE 
OF THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS WL BE FCSTG THE WIND DIRECTIONS. FOR NOW 
WL FAVOR THE LATEST HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DURING THIS 
TIMEFRAME WHICH LOOKS LK A RSNBL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. 

OTHER THAN INITIALIZING THE SEAS IN THE OUTER OFSHR WTRS A LTL 
TOO HIGH...OVERALL THE ENP WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS LOOK RSNBL 
AND WL NOT BE DEVIATED FM SIGLY. 

WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NONE. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...NONE. 

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...GALE WED INTO THU...MDT TO HI CONFDC.
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...GALE TONITE INTO THU...MDT TO HI 
CONFDC 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.