North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 270327
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
827 PM PDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Weak low pres was W of the OR waters this evening and gradually
moves NE into the WA waters later tonight into Fri, then near
Vancouver island later Fri and Fri night. Winds associated with
the low pres remain weak at 15 kt or less as it moves NE over 
the waters. A cold front moves SE over the WA/OR waters Sat
through early Sun. The strongest winds to 30 kt are behind the 
front as high pres builds in from the W. The ECMWF wam is faster
with building the seas by late Sat into Sun compared to the 
WWIII over the WA waters. Current grids are using the WWIII ENP 
and will stay with the 12Z guidance for now. For the updated 
forecast will not be making any changes for now with the initial 
forecast periods looking OK. 


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

An area of weak low pressure continues to the west of the Oregon
waters. An ASCAT pass at 1750Z indicates a trough of low pressure
extending through the northern waters. In the areas where
observations area available, winds are 20 kt or below. 

12Z model solutions are in very good agreement, with the ECMWF 
hinting at increased wind speeds in the coastal waters. There is
a small question of some gales being introduced in the 
California waters Monday night; however, feel the gales will stay
in the coastal waters with little support for a widespread area 
of gales. With the models trending towards one another, 
specifically more towards the GFS solutions, in the last few 
runs, feel confident populating with the 10m GFS throughout. This
will actually result in very little change to the current 
forecast. 


.SEAS...WAM and WW3 are in generally good agreement throughout.
Will use the WW3 throughout.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A



.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Rowland/Sommerville. Ocean Prediction Center.