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N Pacific Marine Discussion |
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381
AGPN40 KWNM 140225
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
625 PM PST MON 13 FEB 2012
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.
IN THE STRONG NNWLY GRADIENT ALONG THE CA COAST GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENT BTWN PT CONCEP AND CP MENDOCINA PRETTY MUCH AS
PREVLY EXPECTED. MAX SEAS OVER THESE WTRS ARE UP TO 18-21 FT
WHICH ARE SIGLY HIGHER THAN FCST BY THE 18Z WAVEWATCH III AND
CLOSER TO THE HIGHER SEAS FCST BY THE 12Z ECMWF WAM.
OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE LATEST MDLS RMN IN GOOD AGRMT THAT THE
NNWLY GRADIENT WL WEAKEN TO SUBGALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. THEN
LATER TUE THE FOCUS SHIFTS FURTHER N WHR THE MDLS GNRLY AGREE
THAT IN REPONSE TO A CLOSED UPR LOW PASSING SE INTO THE PAC NW
COAST AN ASCD WKNG SFC LOW WL TRACK SE ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS. VS ITS
PREV 12Z RUN...THE 18Z GFS FCSTS A SMWHT WEAKER SFC LOW. BUT THE
18Z GEFS INDICATES THAT THE 18Z GFS IS TOO WEAK. THEREFORE WL
INSTEAD FAVOR A BLENDED 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM. SO SINCE THESE MDLS WERE PREVLY PREVLY FAVORED DO NOT
PLAN ON MAKING ANY SIG CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD ASCD GALE WRNGS
OR ASCD CONDS.
THEN LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...LATE WED/WED NITE...AGAIN VS ITS
PREV 12Z RUN THE 18Z GFS FCSTS A WEAKER SFC LOW TO PASS NW OF
THE PZ5 WTRS. AGAIN THE 18Z GEFS INDICATES THAT THE 18Z GFS IS
TOO WEAK. THEREFORE PLAN ON USING A BLENDED 12Z GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM. PER THIS BLEND IT LOOKS CLOSE AS TO
WHETHER GALES WL DVLP ACRS THE OUTER CP FLATTERY TO CP LOOKOUT
WTRS WED NITE. BUT AS NOTED BELOW DUE TO LOW LVL STABILITY FOR
NOW WL HOLD OFF ON FCSTG ANY GALE WRNGS AND WL SEE LATER WHAT
THE 00Z MDLS SHOW. SO NO MAJOR CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV PZ5
FCST RGRDG THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MOST SIG WX FEATURE IS A NRN STREAM SFC
LOW FCST TO IMPACT THE NRN WTRS LATE FRI/SAT. THE 18Z GFS FCSTS
A WEAKER SFC LOW THAN ITS PREV 12Z RUN...WHICH IS SPRTD BY THE
18Z GEFS...BUT STIL FCSTS SM STORM FORCE ASCD BL WINDS ACRS THE
PZ5 WTRS FRI NITE INTO SAT. FOR NOW WITH AT BEST A MODERATE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE...WL USE A BLENDED 12Z/18Z GFS AND 12Z
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS WAS DONE PREVLY WL
HOLD OFF ON FCSTG ANY PSBL STORM WRNGS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRES OVER THE OREGON
COASTAL WATERS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CA WATERS. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0830Z
INDICATED AREA OF GALES OVER THE OREGON AND N CA OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF 20 TO 30
KT WINDS COVERING ALL OF THE AREA N OF THE S CA WATERS.
THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD ROUGHLY FROM CURRENT TIME THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRI. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALES FOR THE CENTRAL CA WATERS TONIGHT AS STRONG
CAA CONTINUES TO MOVE S WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING.
WILL ALLOW THE GALES FOR THE OR AND N CA WATERS TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. ANOTHER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WA WATERS
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES. ALL OF THE MODELS
NOW SEEM TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...SO WILL RAISE CONFDC LVL TO HIGH. HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WA/OR/N CA WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW
WHICH PASSES NW OF THE PZ5 WATERS...HOWEVER THEY ARE ALL SIMILAR
WITH THE GRADIENT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES
WED NIGHT OVER THE FAR NW WA WATERS...HOWEVER STABILITY PROGS
KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE SO WILL HAVE WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30 KT.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO FRI AND SAT...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW. THE GFS SEEMS
LIKE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FURTHER N TRACK OF THE
ECMWF AND THE FURTHER S UKMET TRACK. WILL NOT INDICATE STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON WATERS HOWEVER AS THE GFS INDICATES
AND KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AT 40 KT.
SEAS...THE 12Z MULTI-GRID WW3 APPEARED TO BE INITIALIZED WELL
WITH OBSERVED SEAS MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE FCST VALUES. WILL
ALSO GO CLOSE TO ITS VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE WILL BE
GOING CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE FRI AND SAT
WILL TRIM A FEW FT OFF THE WW3 SINCE WILL NOT BE GOING QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE GFS WINDS.
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH
CONFDC. GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC.
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE FRI INTO SAT...LOW
CONFDC.
.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...GALE OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFDC. GALE
FRI INTO SAT...LOW CONFDC.
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH
CONFDC.
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE.
.FORECASTER VUKITS/KOSIER. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Ocean Prediction Center
Attn: Anthony Siebers, W/NP41
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Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Phone: 301-763-8441
Fax: 301-763-8488 (SDM), 301-763-8085 (back office)
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Page last modified: Wednesday, August 17, 2011 20:10:43 UTC
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