NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Pacific Marine Discussion

                   
                     
181 
AGPN40 KWNM 240335
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
700 PM PST MON 23 NOV 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

AT 0000Z LOW PRES CTR JUST NE OF NRN WTRS XTNDS FRNT SW ACROSS 
WASH AND OREG WTRS. HIGH PRES WITH CNTR N OF FRNT OVER THE NRN 
WTRS AND ANOTHER JUST W OF SRN WTRS. DEEP LOW PRES 961 MB WITH 
HURC FORCE WINDS DUE W OF THE WTRS AROUND 160W. TROF LIES ALONG 
THE CA COAST. CURR OBS HAVE WINDS REACHING 30 KT IN THE NRN WTRS 
WHERE THE SEAS ARE REACHING 12 FT. SEAS ARE ALSO HIGH IN THE SRN 
WTRS REACHING 15 FT DUE TO A LARGE NW SWELL. MDLS ARE ON TRACK 
WITH THE OBS. HIGH PRES OVER NRN WTRS WILL MOVE INLAND AS THE 
DEEP LOW PRES W OF THE WTRS ADVANCES EAST. HIGH PRES TO THE S 
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST W OF THE WTRS AND EXTEND A RIDGE NE 
THAT WILL FORCE THE FRNT ACROSS THE NRN WTRS TO DISPT. TROF 
ALONG THE CA COAST WILL KEEP THE HIGH PRES FROM MVNG FARTHER 
EAST AND IN TURN WILL ALSO BLOCK THE DEEP LOW PRES AND FORCE IT 
TO MOVE NE AS IT SWINGS THE WARM FRNT ACROSS THE NRN WTRS TUE 
INTO EARLY WED...AND ASSCTD CLD FRNT WILL APPRCH THE WTRS WED 
AND STALL OVER THE WTRS. LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE QUASI 
STATIONRY FRONT THU INTO FRI WITH PRES GRDNT TIGHTENING. WILL 
STICK WITH GFS FOR THE UPDATE AND WILL DROP WRNGS IN NRN WTRS 
FOR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND NO MDLS SUGGESTS 
ANY...BUT WILL RETAIN THOSE FOR THE XTNDD PRD. 


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


RECENT VIS IMGRY REVEALS COLD FRONT DRAPED NE TO SW BISECTING 
THE WA OFSHR WTRS. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SFC WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY MINIMAL GALE FORCE AS HAS BEEN FORECAST...EVIDENCED BY 
A 35 KT SHIP REPORT ABT 90 NM TO THE WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG S TO ABT THE CENTER 
OF THE OREGON WATERS...THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT 
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS A VERY LARGE AND INTENSE HURCN FORCE LOW 
LIFTS NE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TMRW. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL 
GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE INTO WED (SUPPORTED BY 12Z 
GFS/NAM/CMC) AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES 
EWARD...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CONFDC LOW TO MDT FOR THIS EVENT. 

FOR THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WILL TEND TO 
STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON GOOD 
CONTINUITY BETWEEN 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WILL GO AHEAD AND 
INTRODUCE GALES FOR THE NRN CAL WATERS AND ALL OF THE PZ5 ZONE 
BEGINNING EARLYT THU AND PERISTING INTO FRI AS A WAVE DEVELOPS 
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTS NE WHILE STRENGTHENING. WITH 
REGARDS TO INTENSITY WILL FORECAST A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION 
THAN THE GFS (WHICH INDICATES SFC WINDS EASILY REACHING STORM 
FORCE) AND FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GEM/UKMET...ALSO 
TOSSING OUT THE RECENT ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS ABT 15 MB 
STRONGER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE NW. 

SEAS...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW OUTPUT FROM THE WW3/ENP HOWEVER 
WILL TRIM VALUES BACK TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GALES AND THE GFS PRODUCES STORM 
FORCE WINDS. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE WED...MDT CONFDC. GALE THU 
INTO EARLY FRI...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE EARLY THU INTO EARLY 
FRI...LOW TO MDT CONFDC. 

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...GALE THU INTO EARLY FRI...LOW TO MDT 
CONFDC. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/COLLINS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.