North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 172113
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
113 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Low pressure just north of the region will move east and high 
pressure will build in from the northwest and will strengthen a 
ridge to the west of the region while a low pressure trough along
the coast will weaken and that will relax pressure gradient over
the region. GOES16 satellite images still show low and high 
clouds moving in the same east direction over the northern waters
and low level divergence is depicted over the central and 
southern waters. NCEP map at 18Z has low pressure 1002 MB 90 NM 
north of the Washington inner waters with a cold front now across
the northern Oregon waters. A low pressure trough stretches from
southern into central California coast. High pressure 1035 MB 
centered 420 NM west of the northern California outer waters 
extends a ridge into the central and southern waters. Pressure 
gradient is tight over the northern waters but relaxed elsewhere 
and maximum winds in the gale force range are over the northern 
waters. 
 
Models in the upper levels have high pressure to the west of the
region that extends a ridge northwest across the Bering sea but 
some energy is trapped in a shallow trough in the Gulf of Alaska 
that will swiftly move southeast into the northern waters in the 
short term. This scenario supports strengthening surface low 
pressure just north of the region. 
 
The global models GFS/ECMWFHR/CMC/UKMETHR/NAM/NOGAPS/JMA have 
initialized the 18Z surface observations fairly generally well 
but just small variations in the short term on the strength and 
movement. Otherwise the small variations do not alter the general
synoptic features and so will continue with GFS initially then 
switch to ECMWFHR in the extended period. 

.SEAS...They range between 6 and 12 ft with lowest seas over the
far southern waters. Seas currently peak at 15 ft over the
northwest portion of the washington waters and are building from
the northwest. NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE models fit well the observed
seas pattern and have been quite consistent in the previous runs.
Will use a blend of both wave models for seas. 


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today into Sunday. 
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today into tonight. 
     Storm Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. 
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into Sunday night. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. 
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Sunday into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Monday.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday. 

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.