NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Pacific Marine Discussion

                   
                     
596 
AGPN40 KWNM 040125
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
625 PM PDT THU 3 JUL 2008 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE 18Z GFS WAS 
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS RUN THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST 
PERIOD. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE FOR THE S CA 
WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR POINT 
CONCEPTION. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL 
EXPECTED LATER SUN THROUGH TUE WITH GALES FCST FOR THE S OR 
WATERS AS WELL AS THE N CA WATERS. THE 18Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT 
STRONGER WITH THE HIGH WHICH IS FCST TO BUILD W OF THE OFFSHORE 
WATERS...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THE CURRENT 
FCST HAS WINDS TO 35 KT OVER THESE AREAS LATER SUN INTO TUE 
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW. IF 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND IN 
THIS DIRECTION...WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS TO 40 KT OVER THESE 
AREAS. 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AN UPR LVL LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING S FROM UPR LVL LOW PRES 
CENTERED JUST W AND NW OF THE WASH OFF WTRS WILL LIFT NE ACROSS 
THE OFF WTRS FRI AS THE NEXT UPR LVL LOW MOVES TO NR 50N 140W LT 
FRI. THIS UPR LVL LOW WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE QN CHARLOTTE 
ISLAND OVR THE WKND AS UPR LVL HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE SW 
STATES W OVER SRN AND CENTRAL CAL OFF WTRS TO N OF HAWAII. THIS 
UPR LVL RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD OVR THE EAST PAC DURING AT 
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WK AS UPR LVL LOW PRES DOMINATES 
THE GULF OF AK. 

IN THE NEAR TERM...WE WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL GALES OVR NE SOCAL 
OFF WTRS AS BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AT 
LEAST FREQ GALE FORCE GUSTS LTR TDY THRU MUCH OF TNGT...AS THE 
PRES GRAD TIGHTENS BETWEEN THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES 
W OF THE SOCAL OFF WTRS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WKN FRI WITH BL 
WINDS BECOMING SUB-GALE EARLY. THIS IDEA CONTINUES TO MATCH UP 
WELL WITH THE CWF FROM LOX. ELSEWHERE...A WK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE 
WILL EXTEND FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NOCAL OFF WTRS 
INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT IS STILL FCST TO CROSS PZ5 AND NRN NOCAL 
OFF WTRS FRI NGT AND SAT. 

LONGER TERM...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE W OF THE OFF WTRS 
LT SUN...AND THEN PERSIST MON AND TUE. A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF 
WILL INTENSIFY LTR SUN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG MON AND TUE. AS A 
RESULT...WE STILL EXPECT MIN GALES TO DVLP OVR FAR ERN NOCAL OFF 
WTRS LT SUN...AND TO COVER MAINLY NE NOCAL INTO SE OREG OFF WTRS 
MON AND TUE. 

MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 12Z 
GFS... BUT BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z ECWMF HAS A GOOD IDEA IN HAVING 
STRONGER HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA MON AND TUE...THUS LEADING TO 
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE GALES DESCRIBED ABV. WE WILL KEEP MAX 
BL WINDS AT 35KT IN THE GALE AREA FOR NOW...BUT NOTE THAT SHOULD 
THE HIGHER PRESSURES NOTED BY THE 12Z ECWMF VERIFY THEN 40+KT BL 
WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE LKLY OVR THE NE NOCAL/SE OREG WTRS MON 
AND ESPECIALLY BY TUE. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THIS IDEA OVR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

SEAS...FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 12Z WW3 MDL 
GUID FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WE WILL CONT TO ADD A FT OR TWO TO 
ITS GUID MAINLY IN/NEAR THE GALE FORCE WIND AREAS THRU THE FCST 
PERIOD. 

WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NONE. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE SE PART MON/TUE...MDT 
CONFDC. 

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...GALE E PART LT SUN THRU TUE...MDT 
CONFDC. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...GALE FAR NE PART TNGT...LOW 
TO MDT CONFDC. 

.FORECASTER KOSIER/MILLS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.