NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC>N Pacific Marine Discussion

                   
                     
773 
AGPN40 KWNM 041945
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1208 PM PDT SAT 4 JUL 2009 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA WITH A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING N TO S  
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT 18Z A WEAK SFC LOW HAD DEVELOPED 540 NM 
W OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE LAST ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS N TO NW 10 
TO 20 KT FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO PT REYES AND NW 10 TO 15 KT OVER 
THE E PORTION OF PT CONCEPTION TO GUADELOUPE ISLAND. ELSEWHERE 
WINDS WERE VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT FROM N OF PT 
ARENA N TO CAPE FLATTERY AND 3 TO 5 FT S OF PT ARENA TO 
GUADELOUPE ISLAND.  

THE GFS...EC AND UKMET ARE ALL CLOSE TO THE SFC PATTERN. THE 
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE IN THE SRN WATERS W OF PT CONCEPTION. 
BY MON HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE PZ6 WATERS FROM THE NW AND A 
THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL INC THE GRADIENT ALONG THE 
COAST...MAINLY TO THE W OF PT CONCEPTION. FOR MON AND TUE HAVE 
WINDS TO 25 KT AND THEN WED INTO THU TO 30 KT. YESTERDAY WAS 
THINKING OF GALE FORCE WINDS BUT TODAY THE GFS LOOKS SLIGHTLY 
WEAKER WITH THE OTHER MODELS ALSO BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY. THE GFS 
IS ABT 5 KT STRONGER SO COMFORTABLE WITH SUN-GALE WINDS. 

IN THE N WATERS THE PATTERN IS SIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED BUT WITH 
WEAKER WINDS. UPPER TROUGH W OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE 
FOR NEXT 36 HOURS PASSING INLAND BY MON MORNING. THEN CLOSED LOW 
DEVELOPS OVER THE ARE TUE AND REMAINS INTO THU. AT THE SFC WEAK 
LOW W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE CAPE LOOKOUT OT PT ST 
GEORGE WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. FOR THIS AREA WINDS WILL BE 
WEAK BUT N OF THE LOW N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT. LATER A SECOND LOW 
WILL DROP SE INTO THE WATERS TUE AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THU. 
PLAN TO KEEP WINDS 15 KT OR LESS FROM SUN INTO THU. 

FOR SEAS WILL GO WITH THE WAVE WATCH MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
FOR THIS PACKAGE THE MODEL IS ABOUT 1 FT LOWER FOR EACH PERIOD 
EXCEPT OFF PT CONCEPTION. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE 
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NONE. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...NONE. 

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...NONE. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 

.FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.