North Pacific Marine Weather Discussion

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AGPN40 KWNM 162058
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1258 PM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The most recent satellite pictures show a cold front slowly
moving inland. An altimeter pass from 18Z shows seas to 30 ft
moving into the northern California waters. This is a few feet
higher than either the ENP or WAM indicated. The overall forecast
pattern across the eastern Pacific will remain quite progressive
during the upcoming week as a series of systems cross the waters.
especially over the northern portions. The 12Z global models are
in pretty good agreement, especially during the first few days,
then the scenarios begin to diverge. I will populate the wind
grids using the GFS through 18Z Tue which allow good continuity
from prior forecast, thereafter I will use the ECMWF for the
remainder of the forecast period. 

Seas...both the ENP and WAM were too low, especially S and E of
the low center. The initial wave grids may need to be slightly
adjusted to compensate for this. Once the swell dies down the
waveheights become more reasonable. In general the ENP was
initialized better than the WAM, even though the maximum wave 
heights were similar. I will use the same blend on the wave grids
as used for the wind grids.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...The 12Z ESTOFS and ETSS 
guidance highlight the potential for a positive surge event could
occur Mon night into Tue along the Washington and northern 
Oregon coasts, with the higher surge values peaking around 1 ft. 
Consult the latest products from coastal NWS forecast offices for
more information.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. 
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. 
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Monday into Monday night. 
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Monday.
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Monday into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Monday into Monday night. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Monday into Tuesday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Monday into Monday night. 
     Gale Possible Wednesday night into Thursday. 

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Monday into Monday night. 
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Monday into Monday night. 

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.