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NOAA>NWS>NCEP>OPC> N Pacific Marine Discussion

                   
                     
105 
AGPN40 KWNM 160940
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1201 AM PST THU 16 FEB 2012 

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 

AT 16/06Z LOW PRES 973 MB OVR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS HAS A DSPTNG  
OCLDD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO AK AND THEN 
INTO THE GULF OF AK. FRNT CONTINES S INTO A LOW PRES 1009 MB 180 
NM NW OF THE REGION. A WARM FRNT CONTINUES S FROM THIS LOW TO 
LIE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE WTRS WHILE A CLD FRNT STRETCHES SW 
FROM THE SAME LOW. INLAND LOW PRES OVR SRN CA STATE HAS A CLD 
FRNT STRETCHING W ACROSS THE SRN CA WTRS THEN INTO A BROAD HIG 
PRES.   THE BROAD HIG PRES HAS ONE CNTR NOW MVD INLAND 1030 MB 
CNTRD OVR OREG WHILE THE OTHER...MAIN CENTER LIES S OF THE FRNT 
NR 32N137W. THE PRES GRDNTOVR THE NRN WTRS HAS JUST RELAXED AND 
WINDS HV JUST DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE. STORM FORCE WINDS 
ARE NOW ALONG THE COAST N OF THE WTRS. OTHERWISE THE PRES GRDNT 
OVR THE SRN WTRS IS GENERALLY SLACK BUT JUST TIGHT NR THE CLD 
FRNT. THE CURR SYNOP OBS HV WINDS REACHING 25 KT OVR THE SRN 
WTRS.

SHORT TERM...THRU FRI NIGHT...THE LOW PRES NW OF THE NRN WTRS 
WILL DISPT AND THE ASSCTD WINDS WILL DIMINSH. A NEW LOW PRES 
WILL DVLP 360 NM W OF WASH WTRS AND WILL FORCE A VERY TIGHT PRES 
GRDNT THAT WILL ELEVATE THE WINDS TO STORM FORCE NR THE NRN 
WTRS. THE 
OCLDD FRNT WILL PASS THE WTRS AND FORCE THE PRES GRDNT TO 
TIGHTEN AND ELEVATE THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVR THE NRN WTRS. 
THE CLD FRNT CURR OVR THE SRN WTRS WILL KEEP DIPPING S SLOWLY 
AND THE HIGH PRES CNTR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY W OF THE SRN 
WTRS.

XTNDED PERIOD...SAT THRU MON...THE CLD FRNT WILL DSIPT S OF THE 
SRN WTRS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD W OF THE SRN WTRS AND XTND A 
RIDGE NE. THIS HIGH WILL BLOCK AND WEAKEN THE FRNT SYS OVR THE 
NRN WTRS FORCE IT TO DSIPT.  

MODELS...THE GLBL MDLS ARE IN REASONABLE AGRMNT OVR MOST OF THE 
SYNOP FEATURES ESPCLY OVR THE REGION. GFS HAS INITIALIZED WELL 
AND HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT AND WILL USE IT FOR THIS FCST PCKG.

SEAS...14 FT SEAS HV BEEN REPORTED BY SHIPS OVR THE SRN WTRS. 
THE NWW3 WAVE MDL SHOWS 14 FT OVR THE SRN WTRS TOO. REL LOWER 
SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OVR THE NRN CA WTRS. BOTH NWW3 AND ECMWF WV 
MDLS FIT WELL WITH THE SEAS PATTERN AND HV BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT 
IN THE PREV RUNS.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE FRI INTO SAT...MDT TO HI 
CONFDC. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MDT 
TO HI CONFDC. 

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...NONE. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.