Pacific Text Briefing Package

[Printable Version]

AGPN40 KWNM 191405
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
605 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Weak low pressure currently west of the pz6 waters will dissipate
by Tuesday. Farther north, a cold front currently approaching the
pz5 waters will move into the area by Tuesday while low pressure
forms along the front. The front will then move north across the
pz5 waters Tuesday night. Minimal gales are possible in
association with this low, but for now will continue to hold the
strongest winds at 30 knots. Another stronger low is still
expected to move into the northern pz5 waters by Thursday. Still
expect strong gales in association with this low, although some
storm conditions are still possible across the offshore waters.
This low will then move inland over southwestern Canada Thursday
night. Yet another cold front will then move into the pz5 waters
by Saturday. For wind grids will continue to use the current
grids throughout the forecast period. Current warnings look
reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore
waters forecast.

For wave height grids will also continue to use the current grids
throughout the forecast period.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...The 06Z ESTOFS and ETSS 
guidance highlight the potential for a positive surge event Thu 
into Thu night north of Cape Lookout, OR. However, given the 
uncertainty with the track of the low, it is still early to 
narrow down specific locations or surge values.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Pacific offshore
waters with 05-06Z ASCAT passes showing winds less than 20 kt
across the region. A distant cold front was analyzed along 140W 
at 06Z, while further south a 1008 mb occluded low pressure 
system was located near 33N133W.

The near term forecast remains fairly straightforward as the cold
front will continue pushing east towards the PZ5 and northern PZ6
waters. A frontal wave is expected to develop Tue and lift north
across the PZ5 waters Tue night into Wed. While there remains a
threat for marginal gales, the 00Z GFS came in with slightly
weaker winds while the 00Z/06Z NAM and 00Z UKMET keeps winds 
below gale force. Therefore, we will continue to carry 30 kt 
winds with this feature and hold off on gales at this time. We 
favored the 00Z GFS winds through Tue night.

In the medium range, the forecast gets complicated as the 00Z
guidance failed to offer any clarity regarding low pressure to
impact the PZ5 waters by midweek. The 00Z ECMWF/UKMET solutions
are weaker with the associated frontal winds and further north 
with the parent low. Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS/CMC favor a stronger 
and more southerly track across our PZ5 zones. After collaborating
with some of the adjacent coastal WFOs, it was decided to make 
little change to our previous forecast winds which were based on 
the 12Z GFS. This solution still has support from the 00Z GEFS 
and 12Z ECMWF ensemble means, and it avoids major headline changes
until forecast confidence increases. Significant adjustments may
be necessary with future issuances, so marine interests should 
continue to monitor this situation. For now, we will maintain 
gale headlines for all zones north of Point Arena, CA on Thu/Thu 
night. For Fri and beyond, we transitioned the grids back to the 
00Z ECMWF as the GFS was a fast outlier with the next system 
approaching the area this weekend. 

.SEAS...Our 06Z sea state analysis revealed 4-6 ft seas across
the region with relatively light winds over our waters. In the
near term, the 00Z Wavewatch seas were used today through Tue
night. For Wed through Thu night, the previous wave grids (12Z 
Wavewatch) were used as a starting point with some hand edits to
match up along our coordination borders. Late in the period, we
favored the 00Z ECMWF WAM seas to match our forecast winds. 


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Possible Thursday into Thursday night. 
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Thursday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Thursday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Thursday.

$$

.Forecaster Nolt/Reinhart. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:14:06Z, 19 November 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZPN25 KWBC 191523
OFFPZ5

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

Washington and Oregon waters-
Inner waters from  60 nm to 150 nm offshore.
Outer waters from 150 nm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

PZZ898-200445-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS...A distant cold front
will approach the waters from the W today and tonight, then
slowly move E into the area on Tue. Low pressure will develop
along the front and lift N across the waters later Tue into Wed.
A stronger low will approach from the W Wed and Wed night, then
cross the northern waters on Thu while pulling a cold front
across the region. The low will lift N of the area Thu night and
move inland on Fri. A weak high pressure ridge will build over
the waters late Fri night.  

$$

PZZ800-200445-
Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 nm and 150 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT and TUE...S to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SE winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 
building to 6 to 11 ft. Chance of rain. 
.WED...S to SW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming SW 5 to 15 kt. Seas
10 to 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 8 to 10 ft. 
.THU...E to SE winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft,
building to 12 to 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 17 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt. Seas
subsiding to 9 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ900-200445-
Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 to 12 ft. 
Chance of rain. 
.WED...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S to SE winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt, then becoming NW
35 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, building to 12 to 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 35 to 45 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt.
Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 16 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 9 to 
13 ft.

$$

PZZ805-200445-
Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 nm and 150 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to
6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 
7 to 12 ft. Chance of rain. 
.WED...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt.
Seas 10 to 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW 10 to
20 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming W to SW.
Seas 9 to 12 ft, building to 12 to 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 to 40 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt.
Seas 16 to 20 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 16 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 9 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ905-200445-
Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas
5 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Chance of rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 to 12 ft. 
Chance of rain. 
.WED...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas
9 to 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt. Seas
9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...W winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft,
building to 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 to 40 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt.
Seas 15 to 20 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas becoming 13 to 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to NW 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 9 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ810-200445-
Cape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 nm and 150 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 11 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming variable and diminishing
to less than 10 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S to SW winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming W 
30 to 35 kt. Seas building to 10 to 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 15 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 13 to 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 10 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ910-200445-
Cape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 nm and 250 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 
10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Chance of
rain. 
.WED...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 20 to
30 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming W 30 to 
35 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft, building to 12 to 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 12 to 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt.
Seas subsiding to 10 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ815-200445-
Florence, OR to Point St. George between 60 nm and 150 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas becoming 4 to 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming NW 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to
11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW 15 to 25 kt.
Seas 9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S to SW winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming W 
25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 10 to 17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 15 kt. Seas 
10 to 13 ft. 

$$

PZZ915-200445-
Florence, OR to Point St. George between 150 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming SW 20 to 30 kt. Seas
9 to 10 ft. 
.THU...S to SW winds increasing to 35 to 45 kt, then becoming W 
25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 10 to 18 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to
15 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 

$$

.Forecaster Nolt. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:15:24Z, 19 November 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZPN26 KWBC 191523
OFFPZ6

Offshore Waters Forecast
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

California waters-
Inner waters from  60 nm to 150 nm offshore.
Outer waters from 150 nm to 250 nm offshore.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

PZZ899-200445-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR CALIFORNIA WATERS...Weak low pressure W of the
southern waters will move E today and tonight, then dissipate
near the outer waters on Tue. A cold front will approach the
northern waters from the W today and tonight. Low pressure will
develop along the front on Tue, then lift N while pulling the
front across the area Tue night into Wed. A low pressure trough
will cross the area later Wed and Wed night. Strong low pressure
will pass well N of the area on Thu and pull a cold front into
the northern waters. The front will become stationary over the
northern waters Thu night into Fri, then dissipate Fri night.  

$$

PZZ820-200445-
Point St. George to Point Arena between 60 nm and 150 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to
6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 to 9 ft. 
Chance of rain. 
.WED...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas becoming 7 to 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 8 to
10 ft. 
.THU...SW winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt. Seas building to 9 to
16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W to SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. 
.FRI...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. 

$$

PZZ920-200445-
Point St. George to Point Arena between 150 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THU...

.TODAY...S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 to 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Chance
of rain. 
.WED...N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming NW. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming SW 20 to 30 kt. Seas
9 to 11 ft. 
.THU...W to SW winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt. Seas building to 
9 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 15 kt.
Seas 9 to 12 ft. 

$$

PZZ825-200445-
Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 nm and 150 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming SE. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft. Chance of rain. 
.WED...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas
6 to 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.THU...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...W to SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas
9 to 11 ft. 

$$

PZZ925-200445-
Point Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 nm and 250 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Chance
of rain. 
.WED...SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to NW 15 to 25 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
8 to 11 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas
9 to 11 ft. 

$$

PZZ830-200445-
Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 nm and 150 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 7 ft. Chance of rain. 
.WED...S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W to SW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
5 to 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 8 to
10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas
9 to 10 ft. 

$$

PZZ930-200445-
Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 nm and 250 nm
offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming SE. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. 
.WED...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 7 to 11
ft.
.THU...W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. 

$$

PZZ835-200445-
Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 nm and
150 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to
6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft. 
.WED...S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas building to 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 

$$

PZZ935-200445-
Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 nm
and 250 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas
4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to
6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain. 
.WED...W to SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas
5 to 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming NW 10 to 20 kt. Seas
building to 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W. Seas 8 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas
7 to 9 ft. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. 

$$

PZZ840-200445-
Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 nm
and 150 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...S to SE winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming E to SE 10 to
20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas 3 to
5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas
3 to 5 ft. 
.WED...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SW 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to NW. Seas
4 to 7 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.  

$$

PZZ940-200445-
Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 nm and 250 nm offshore-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Seas 5 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of
rain. 
.TUE...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. 
.WED...S to SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 4 to
6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas building to 6 to 10 
ft.
.THU...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 
.FRI...N to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas
6 to 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. 

$$

PZZ945-200445-
San Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 nm offshore
west to 120W-
723 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018

.TODAY...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SW. Seas 3 to
5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S to SW winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 5 to
15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S to SE winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.WED...Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas
2 to 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W to SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W to NW 5 to
15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.THU...N to NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N to NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 

$$

.Forecaster Nolt. Ocean Prediction Center.
Last Update:15:25Z, 19 November 2018
Updates: Four times per day

FZPN01 KWBC 190939
HSFEP1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 
1030 UTC MON NOV 19 2018 

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS 

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY 
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. 

SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION 
IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE). 

ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT 
VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE). 

SECURITE 

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT 
TO 50N 160E 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC NOV 19. 
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 20. 
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 21. 

.WARNINGS. 

...STORM WARNING... 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 41N159E 999 MB. OVER FORECAST 
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 36N160E TO 46N170E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N163E 979 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND NE 
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N164E 972 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NE...180 NM 
NW...AND 120 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 
28 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 33N161E TO 44N168E TO 45N180W 
TO 50N180W TO 55N171E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. ALSO 
FROM 32N TO 45N BETWEEN 173E AND 166E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 14 FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.LOW 50N149W 1003 MB MOVING E 15 KT. WITHIN 720 NM SW AND 780 NM 
W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. FROM 33N TO 47N BETWEEN 141W 
AND 154W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. ALSO FROM 30N TO 
33N BETWEEN 141W AND 159W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 39N132W 1006 MB. FROM 31N TO 42N 
BETWEEN 133W AND 143W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MAIN CENTER 56N149W 983 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. 
OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 50N BETWEEN 134W AND 141W...AND WITHIN 
240 NM S AND SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH FIRST CENTER 58N148W 991 MB 
AND NEW SECOND CENTER 55N137W. FROM 54N TO 60N BETWEEN 144W AND 
154W...AND WITHIN 180 NM E AND NE OF A FRONT FROM 58N141W TO 
SECOND CENTER TO 53N135W TO 48N133W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMBINED LOW 59N145W 988 MB. FROM 58N TO 60N E 
OF 147W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. 

...GALE WARNING... 
.LOW 64N165W 996 MB MOVING N 05 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 
61N BETWEEN 166W AND 172W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT...EXCEPT 
WHERE NOTED ABOVE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 64N167W 993 MB. N OF 59N W OF 170W WINDS 
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N161W 996 MB. N OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS 
WITHIN 420 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 

...GALE WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 35N176E 1008 MB MOVING N 10 
KT. FROM 34N TO 41N BETWEEN 172W AND 174E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 39N178E 1009 
MB. WITHIN 540 NM E OF A LINE FROM 43N176W TO 30N172E WINDS 25 
TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 44N167W 1000 
MB. FROM 38N TO 44N BETWEEN 155W AND 170W...AND FROM 34N TO 49N 
BETWEEN 170W AND 180W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW NW OF AREA 58N172E 1001 MB MOVING E 15 KT. OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 180 NM S AND SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 55N TO 59N W OF 174W WINDS TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 
55N167W DESCRIBED BELOW.

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 49N170E 1008 MB MOVING NE 40 KT. FROM 43N TO 51N BETWEEN 
178E AND 166E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
51N TO 55N BETWEEN 172W AND 173E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N167W 999 MB. FROM 47N TO 55N BETWEEN 
154W AND 175W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N150W 992 MB. FROM 43N TO 53N BETWEEN 
142W AND 154W...AND S OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 480 NM W 
QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

...GALE WARNING... 
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 47N129W 1001 MB. FROM 49N TO 51N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 129W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 38N TO 49N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW 33N133W 1008 MB MOVING E 10 KT. FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 
127W AND 141W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 32N126W 1011 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. 

.DENSE FOG. 48 HOUR FORECAST VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM 
FROM 41N TO 43N BETWEEN 164W AND 175W. 

.HIGH 43N171W 1033 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 40N161W 1034 MB. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 35N156W 1030 MB. 

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 49N171E 1022 MB. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 54N176E 1019 MB. 

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON NOV 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE NOV 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED NOV 21.

.WARNINGS.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 16N95W TO 15N94W TO 14N95W TO 15N95W TO
16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 14.5N95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 
16N94W TO 15N94W TO 14N97W TO 16N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

...ASHFALL ADVISORY...
FUEGO VOLCANO AT POSITION 14.3N 90.9W IS CURRENTLY ERUPTING. 
PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH MAY REACH TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING N OF 13.5N E OF 93.5W. LOW LEVEL VISIBILITY MAY BE 
REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. IF 
MARINERS ENCOUNTER VOLCANIC ASH...THEY ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
THE OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 
305-229-4425.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N129W TO 23N133W TO 21N140W. N OF 28N WITHIN 
90 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 
AREA BOUNDED BY 30N140W TO 30N133W TO 28N136W TO 27N140W TO 
30N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N122W TO 26N124W TO 22N131W 
THEN DISSIPATING TO 21N134W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 15N119W TO 10N109W TO 06N110W TO 12N125W
TO 10N140W TO 17N140W TO 15N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
9  
FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 13N119W TO 09N117W TO 
11N125W TO 11N138W TO 15N138W TO 16N128W TO 13N119W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 18N135W TO 12N122W TO 
10N121W TO 12N133W TO 12N140W TO 18N140W TO 18N135W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 11N86W TO 10N87W TO 10N88W TO 12N87W TO 
11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.36 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. WITHIN 
AREA BOUNDED BY 30N140W TO 30N138W TO 29N139W TO 28N140W TO 
30N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N130W TO 27N134W TO 25N140W. 
WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30N140W TO 30N134W TO 27N138W TO 25N140W 
TO 30N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN W TO NW 
SWELL...HIGHEST NEAR 30N140W.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0830 UTC MON NOV 19...

.LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM
06N TO 11N BETWEEN 129W AND 133W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 07N95W TO 07N102W. ITCZ FROM 
07N102W TO 09N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 
104W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 117W...WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 119W...AND FROM 08N TO 10.5N W OF 
135W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Last Update:09:40Z, 19 November 2018
Updates: Four times per day